High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)

[Nielsio]

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well, I agree, I don't really think Jamie played it badly.

I just don't agree with you that his play would have changed if he had a lower fluez, that's all.

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[JokersAttack]

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well, I agree, I don't really think Jamie played it badly.

I just don't agree with you that his play would have changed if he had a lower fluez, that's all.

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maybe

[kypreanus]

I love this show.

Enough jabbering on the Doyle hand, what about other hands?

When does Jamie Gold leave, and DN enter the game? Perhaps Patrik bought in a for a "cool million" just because he was going to double Goldmachine up? When and how Sammy and Gee collide? TOP TOP!

Too many questions, so few answers

[aislephive]

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This is simply not true. Why pay someone off that you read for having a better hand, just because you happen to have the third nuts.

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There is no such thing as a "read" for having a better hand. If Doyle thought Jamie was strong, he needs to think about the hands that Jamie would consider "strong." Any flush is certainly among those hands, and while two pair / sets / straights are not very likely, they are without a doubt possibilities. Jamie also loves to bluff as we know, and potentially picking off a Jamie Gold bluff here will reap huge rewards, mainly the $170k in the middle, $135k or so from Gold.

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Jamie bluffs alot, and Doyle has a good read on Jamie. Why play a pot with him when you're getting ultra high confidence tells from him and may genuinly believe it is likely that he is holding a winning hand, when you can wait for him to bluff off money or simply wait for a spot when you read him for a hand but not for one that beats yours.

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Again with this read that Jamie has a "winning" or "better" hand, that type of read does not exist. He can believe Jamie thinks that he has a winning hand, which makes sense and was the case here as in his read was correct if that is what it was, but if he is beating the hand range that Jamie thinks is the "best hand" then he is incorrect to fold his flush here.

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Also, the fact that it is a cash game and not a tournament also means that Doyle should be in no rush to get into a 1 million dollar pot against a chronic bluffer. I have no doubt if Doyle thought he was ahead the majority of the time there, he would have called.

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Doyle is not going to get many more opportunities like this against Jamie. Remember, there is a long list of people wanting to get into this game, and the game itself rarely runs. This could very likely be the last big confrontation Doyle finds himself in against Jamie. You're acting like Doyle has all the time in the world to wait for better spots, he doesn't. Jamie could easily overplay another hand minutes later against somebody else and after he gets stacked he leaves. Now what? You'll have to wait until the next massive NL game runs sometime late next year, that is if Jamie can still afford to donk off six figures by then.

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And we don't know for sure he has multiple bullets available. We heard PH say that the players don't like carrying huge amounts of money around (which is why PH was playing behind). Whilst this may not apply as much to Doyle, it is possible that he may have only had the 1 bullet (or 2) available at the time and given how popular the show rated to be, didn't want to bust in an extremely thin EV situation so early into the game.

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Unlike Hellmuth, Doyle consistently plays in the big game and is used to carrying around massive amounts of money, so I would be very surprised if this was the case. It's much more likely that Jamie has only one buyin with him, and common sense says the 8 other players at the table collectively are much more likely to stack him than Doyle.

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and JDesab > I don't think Jamie wanted Doyle to fold, he was jamming what he thought to be the winning hand whilst trying to disguise it as a bluff.

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And you still can't see why Doyle made a bad fold?

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Also, I don't think there's much basis to say that Jamie's play would change if was holding the nuts or second nuts. I don't think he was trying to price out a draw so much as to simply get paid off. And if Jamie did put Doyle on the Qs, since he just made a pot+ sized bet, wouldn't it be a better idea to just call and try and induce a river bluff? Or raise more thinly for value rather than make a bet that he can't call?

Also, the only hand that includes the Qs that bets that flop like Doyle did is the AxQs. And would Doyle really bet the turn like that with that hand? He might, since he is good at blending his range and disguising his hand strength. However, I think Doyle raises preflop with this hand, esp in late pos, which he did't do.

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You're assuming that Jamie is actively hand-reading and trying to figure out the best play against Doyle's "range." If he had been, then he wouldn't have raised $100k on the turn with a 9 high flush in a limped pot 400bbs deep against the most solid player at the table.

Thinking levels above your opponent is a mistake. It's Doyle's job to figure out what level Jamie is on and then go from there to figure out what Jamie is thinking. If you're thinking about what to do with your ten high flush against Jamie as if he were on the level of Daniel Negreanu then you probably are going to make a big mistake.

[Janis N.]

aislephive and futuredoc own this thread imo

[JokersAttack]

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Doyle is not going to get many more opportunities like this against Jamie. Remember, there is a long list of people wanting to get into this game, and the game itself rarely runs. This could very likely be the last big confrontation Doyle finds himself in against Jamie. You're acting like Doyle has all the time in the world to wait for better spots, he doesn't. Jamie could easily overplay another hand minutes later against somebody else and after he gets stacked he leaves. Now what? You'll have to wait until the next massive NL game runs sometime late next year, that is if Jamie can still afford to donk off six figures by then.

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Jamie is not the only player at the table.

[aislephive]

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Doyle is not going to get many more opportunities like this against Jamie. Remember, there is a long list of people wanting to get into this game, and the game itself rarely runs. This could very likely be the last big confrontation Doyle finds himself in against Jamie. You're acting like Doyle has all the time in the world to wait for better spots, he doesn't. Jamie could easily overplay another hand minutes later against somebody else and after he gets stacked he leaves. Now what? You'll have to wait until the next massive NL game runs sometime late next year, that is if Jamie can still afford to donk off six figures by then.

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Jamie is not the only player at the table.

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This only means something if indeed Doyle only has one buyin with him, which is extremely unlikely. Besides, we have seen people borrow hundreds of thousands from each other on the show, and I don't think anybody is going to have a problem loaning him money. From what I understand borrowing is a very common practice for high stakes live poker. Don't forget Doyle is also 75, it's not like he can put in crazy long sessions like he might have at 25. Point being that his time in this game is going to be very limited and there is no need for him to pass up a somewhat siginificant +EV spot. A 5 or 10 percent edge might not seem like much, but 5 percent of a million is $50k. Does it still seem so insignificant now?

[DodgyGeordie]

Hello. At the end of this episode we see a teaser for ep 12 where Jamie Gold appears to go all in for a large amount and Antonius appears to call (assuming it's not cross cut). Who wants a guess at the outcome?

[jcl]

Doyle won the first hand. Everyone knows this means he will get unlucky. bad luck came in the form of a difficult hand. Why so much other irrelevant analysis?

[TimTimSalabim]

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Any flush is certainly among those hands, and while two pair / sets / straights are not very likely, they are without a doubt possibilities.

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A queen or jack high flush is much more likely than the others. I don't think even Gold is loose enough to be limping utg with hands like 72s or 94s (unless the 72 game is on), but he likely would play any Qxs.

Edit: I also think double and triple gappers and 42s are a stretch too. Of course when it comes to his hand range, your guess is as good as mine.