(NLTRN) 110 3-bet postflop actions

[ChicagoRy]

I've had an easy time reading the opponent postflop. He's given up to my c-bets on the driest of boards. He's folded to 3 of my 3-bets so far (3-3.5x his initial raise) and has been playing raise or fold, myself the same. He's 3-bet me once and I folded.

Opponent is a 10% ROI at avg stake of 220s over a few hundred games, but I do not recognize his name and have never played him.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1745
BB: t1255

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to t150</font>, Hero calls t75 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t225)</font>.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t300, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t150</font>, Hero calls t150 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t450)</font>.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t600, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t400</font>.


Results:
Final pot: t600

The way he had been playing his turn range with the check IMO was not an A (except Acxc which is extremely rare obv). I felt he folded most, if not all underpairs and would continue to lead a set. He had raised a few of my c-bets, even on the least scary of boards and had not done anything tricky at all.

Does anybody like this line? Particularly the turn lead. I'm obviously calling a shove here and if he did/does shove I would expect my read to be off and to see an A or better. I had compensated for an error in judgment/reads as this hand played out, but I obviously did not run any sort of equity calc during the hand as I acted in a normal amount of time, perhaps a second or two longer as I normally would in such a big pot here.

Thoughts on any aspect of the hand are welcome as well as any additional reads or questions you may have about villain.

Oh, and as for the 2.5x raise here, he was calling such a small % of my PF raises and not adjusting to a smaller raise, I felt not raising 3x+ at this point was probably best, as I would have a weaker hand most of the time when seeing a flop OTB, combined with the fact that his postflop play was so transparent/easy to play against. There was little value in raising 3x and firing out for 75% + on a c-bet. So my standard here would be 2.5x PF and c-bet about 2/3.

[APXG]

The way I see it there are 2 options: a)bet turn like you did, I'd actually make it 500-550 to erase any hope of fold equity or some other fancyplay OR b)check turn and fire all rivers when checked to.

A straightforward opponent is unlikely to be bluffing the river after missing a 2nd barrel, so either he is checking the turn with the intention of getting it in either through turn crai or a river bet, or he's just giving up.

Thus -- the standard line in your spot would be betting the turn, but if you have "added info" that he is straightforward and won't do anything tricky in a fairly unattractive river bluff spot(and want to trust this read), you can express the observation by giving yourself a free card and saving thereby 400-500 turn bet.

He is folding the turn like 80% of the time anyway, so the truly bad play would be check turn, check behind river -- anything else is fine. Actually, the edge from taking the tricky route is gonna be so small that it may not even be worth bothering with.

[cwar]

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he is folding the turn like 80% of the time anyway

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You had me till here APXG, good analysis but I dont think he is folding anywhere near 80%. Given what Ive seen I like to check and bet the river if checked to, like 300.

[Jiganti]

I like checking here and stacking him when he bluffs into my made hand on the river, or missing and taking it down myself. It's much more of a chance that he will fold on the river after checking both streets.

[APXG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he is folding the turn like 80% of the time anyway

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You had me till here APXG, good analysis but I dont think he is folding anywhere near 80%. Given what Ive seen I like to check and bet the river if checked to, like 300.

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Why not? I agree with OP's assertion that villain would rarely play an Ace, two pair or set this way given the heaviness of the board and shallow stacks on the turn. He doesn't need to go for a CRAI to get stacks in unlike in a 100bb+ game.

If you think he's shoving with KK-88 there then I agree its less than 80%, but I assumed this was not the case. Its like THE WORST board to go broke on with marginal hands.