100NL 99 I c-check and stack off

Robin Donks · #1 11-10-2007, 05:26 PM

Villain is 70/0 over 10(yeah ten) hands. 5 min ago he was MP2 in this hand:

OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) by Hand Converter CG

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($43.60)
MP1 ($11.05)
MP2 ($60.25)
CO ($60.70)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($23.30)
BB ($6.50)
Hero ($100.00)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero folds, UTG+1 raises to $5, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $4, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: ($11.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($11.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $1, UTG+1 raises to $5, MP2 raises (54.25 $1, UTG+1 calls $33.60 (All-In).

River: ($51.10) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $51.10
Main Pot: $13.50, between UTG+1 and MP2. > Pot won by MP2 ($13.50).
Pot 2: $37.60, returned to MP2.

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has 7d As (two pair, aces and sevens).
MP2 has 9c Ac (two pair, aces and nines).
Outcome: MP2 wins $51.10. 

OK, here's the main hand:

OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) by Hand Converter CG

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($24.00)
UTG ($14.95)
UTG+1 ($94.70)
MP1 ($104.50)
MP2 ($27.00)
MP3 ($92.95)
CO ($18.80)
Button ($19.00)
Hero ($101.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $1, Button folds, Hero raises to $9.5, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $8.50, MP1 folds, CO folds.
 I raise big because of shortstack limp, villain being a fish and having 99 I'd be more than happy to win it preflop

Flop: ($23) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $85.2 (All-In), Hero calls $85.20.

I think I'll induce a bluff by checking. OMFG he's all in, must be FOS, instacall, instacall

Comments?

Das Budrick · #2 11-10-2007, 05:33 PM

he's almost never totally full of [censored] here, given the read he can do this with like any ten or overpair. I would c-bet and fold to a shove. Your only read on him is that he overbet with a strong hand (aces up), so why do you think he will also overbet with air? as played I think I fold.

he's also doing this with hands that you beat like 88 etc but my point is, it's probably long run -EV

Robin Donks · #3 11-10-2007, 05:38 PM

No, my read is that he checks a good hand, then mindonks - checkraises all in, slowplays essentially and therefore 4x pot overbet is probably air

Das Budrick · #4 11-10-2007, 05:48 PM

i wouldn't necessarily conclude that the 4x overbet is air at all based on that. the checkraise all-in in hand 1 was a huge overbet. then he overbets in hand two. what am i missing? how do you know he isn't slowplaying aces by limp/calling pf? a 70/0 will always slowplay preflop (although 10 hands really is meaningless). i just think he's doing this with a hand that beats you more often than with a hand that you beat.

Ctrl.Dominate · #5 11-10-2007, 05:56 PM

I would probably fold. 10 hands is not enough to be able to have that good of a read. You may be right, but I personally need more evidence before I could call this. This really seems like a slightly ahead, way behind situation most of the time.

Also, LOL at the stack sizes at this table.

effang · #6 11-10-2007, 06:41 PM

the problem with this is if you like to embrace variance. it's true that he doesn't have a super strong hand. but against donkey's like this, the worst thing is when they turn their bluffs (T2, T7, or something) into vb hands.

He's just as likely to have a weak T or a decent 8 here.