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#51
09-18-2007, 02:24 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
down by 14...and then you score the TD and are down by 8. You should go for 2. This one really isn't very easy to see which is why pretty much no teams out there do it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some high-school team out there who got it though since many of they coaches are also teachers at the school. So put a fairly sharp math teacher in this position and maybe it happens. Throw in the fact that for many high-school teams the XP isn't going to be anywhere near 100%. Speaking of which, to be fair I don't think they should be counted as 100% for NFL or NCAA calcs either. Also, it's a 2.5yd play that involves some added pressure for the offense because you only get one shot at it and there ain't a whole lot of field to work with or maneuver around. I don't know what a team's success rate on 2-pt conversions is usually. [/ QUOTE ] There must be some research done on the EV of this somewhere??? There has to be a reason that at least some NFL coaches don't do this. 
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#52
09-18-2007, 02:30 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
I want to say that the 49ers incessant conservatism hurt them, but they won the game so I don't really have a basis for my critism other than they most likely could of won by more. Running it on 3rd and long three times in a close game has got to hurt Alex Smith's confidence. The one fumble has been his only blatant mistake, and while it was pathetic, the dude hasn't thrown a INT yet. I really miss Norv Turner sometimes.
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#53
09-18-2007, 02:34 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] down by 14...and then you score the TD and are down by 8. You should go for 2. This one really isn't very easy to see which is why pretty much no teams out there do it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some high-school team out there who got it though since many of they coaches are also teachers at the school. So put a fairly sharp math teacher in this position and maybe it happens. Throw in the fact that for many high-school teams the XP isn't going to be anywhere near 100%. Speaking of which, to be fair I don't think they should be counted as 100% for NFL or NCAA calcs either. Also, it's a 2.5yd play that involves some added pressure for the offense because you only get one shot at it and there ain't a whole lot of field to work with or maneuver around. I don't know what a team's success rate on 2-pt conversions is usually. [/ QUOTE ] There must be some research done on the EV of this somewhere??? There has to be a reason that at least some NFL coaches don't do this. [/ QUOTE ] The reason is probably that most of them are ignorant. The one's that are aware are too old school and stubborn.
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#54
09-18-2007, 02:49 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
There must be some research done on the EV of this somewhere??? There has to be a reason that at least some NFL coaches don't do this. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's to avoid explaining it to the media if it costs you the game. If you do it and win, you're a genius. If you do it and lose, you're an even bigger idiot. Media and fans don't understand variance and results-oriented-thinking, so coaches take the safe route.
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#55
09-18-2007, 10:00 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this didn't happen recently but I'm watching the Eagles game and it reminded me of something. When a team is down by 15, and there is, say, 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, and they score a TD. You should ALWAYS go for 2, right? Time after time I see the coaches kick the one, to put themselves down by 8, with the plan (apparently) to go for 2 if and when they score again. Doesn't this seem like totally irrational decision based on the fear of "hopelessness" or whatever if you go for it and fail? It makes no sense. Waiting until the second TD, pinning all your hopes on that, has to be worse than trying, failing, and knowing that you now need to score two more times. [/ QUOTE ] I totally agree. For some reason everyone assumes the result of the 2pt play would be different? Seems to me you're better off knowing ahead of time how many possessions you need.
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#56
09-18-2007, 10:24 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
Icing the kicker for a chipshot. Oops, now they're going for it. Oops, they scored a touchdown instead. Nice job Reid. [/ QUOTE ] You can't put that on Reid.
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#57
09-18-2007, 10:26 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
K 1-21 K43 Andre' Woodson pass complete to Steve Johnson for 57 yards to the LOU0,
1ST DOWN UK, TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28. Lones Seiber kick attempt good. ========================== LOUISVILLE 34, KENTUCKY 40 ==========================
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#58
09-18-2007, 10:36 AM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Icing the kicker for a chipshot. Oops, now they're going for it. Oops, they scored a touchdown instead. Nice job Reid. [/ QUOTE ] You can't put that on Reid. [/ QUOTE ] As it turns out, they called the timeout because they only had 10 guys on the field. (And to ice the kicker).
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#59
09-18-2007, 01:45 PM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] sooner or later there has to be SOME team out there that figures it out. [/ QUOTE ] Have you ever brought math into a conversation with a run of the mill sports fan? I mentioned statistical variance to some of my brighter friends during a football game and they were like no way there is no place for math in this. Hell, it's surprising how many people don't get the concept of results oriented thinking. [/ QUOTE ] I've tried doing this with some peers at a University widely considered to be a top notch school of high education. I've written out the math for them, tried explaining it in less complicated terms, done the whole variance shpeel, but the conversation always comes down to two points. 1) Statistics don't take into account "intangibles" like home field advantage and momentum, and 2) When it comes down to it, no coach in the NFL is going to go against conventional wisdom when their job is on the line thus they'll never do this. I've gotten some friends to agree that in a theoretical sense going for two down 8 is correct, but they still aren't sold. However, I think it is more correct to do it in the NFL where possession in OT is determined by a coin flop whereas in college skill level does come into play much more.
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#60
09-18-2007, 01:55 PM
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Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There must be some research done on the EV of this somewhere??? There has to be a reason that at least some NFL coaches don't do this. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's to avoid explaining it to the media if it costs you the game. If you do it and win, you're a genius. If you do it and lose, you're an even bigger idiot. Media and fans don't understand variance and results-oriented-thinking, so coaches take the safe route. [/ QUOTE ] Bingo, this is totally it. The first coach that does this in a big game and it fails, will be incorrectly dubbed a moron ad nauseum by every 2 bit sports radio jerk with a microphone and every incompitent analyst at ESPN. Going for 1 to make it 7 is "safe" and low variance and doesn't rock the boat.
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