PLO8 MTT - Flop Decision Early in Tourney

[franknagaijr]

I'm assuming that you were still a couple tables away from the bubble with these blinds?

Now that I look at it, Villain's c-bet is clearly wrong-sized. It should either be a baby tickler/feeler bet or a commitment bet to indicate that you cannot possibly push him out. With this particular bet size, he's a little foolish to fold even third pair to your push, since he's putting 5K into a 30K pot, so that's pretty hard odds to walk away from. And yet, he's left himself wiggle room to walk away when he should not.

Did villain actually fold here? That's too weak-tight for my tastes even.

[Truthiness24]

It was a DS tourney, so there were about 10 tables left at the time, or half the field. 2 tables paid.

And, for once, I was 1-tabling, paying attention, and I was right.

*** FLOP *** [Js 8c Tc]
Villain bets 6,000
Hero raises to 10,866, and is all in
Villain calls 4,866
Hero shows [2s 7s Jc Ad]
Villain shows [2c Ac 2d 4c]
*** TURN *** [Js 8c Tc] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [Js 8c Tc Qd] [3d]
Hero shows a pair of Jacks, for high
Villain shows a pair of Twos, for high
Hero wins the pot (33,732) with a pair of Jacks
No low hand qualified

This looks a bit crazy, but this is what I was thinking:

1. The c-bet was immediate. I suspected a missed A2. Villain overcommitted without thinking.

2. I had villain at 20/9 over 80 hands. I couldn't think of any reasonable way that the flop hit him except the flush draw, and I was willing to fade the flush alone.

3. I figured I was ahead against any draw. According to twodimes, I was:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Js Tc 8c
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s 2s Jc Ad 428 528 292 0 9 36 129 0.624
Ac 4c 2c 2d 238 292 528 0 45 0 129 0.376

4.There was fold equity in my push.

5. You need to take chances in order to accumulate chips to make FTs.

It's a sketchy play in a cash game but viable early in a tournament when you need to gather the chips to go deep. I think that it better illustrates OP's point about pushing early in a low limit MTT when you don’t necessarily have the best of it.

[franknagaijr]

NHS - and FTW ....

1) Villain min-bets the flop, do you come over the top?
2) Villain pots it and fold equity is officially zero. Does that change your plan at all?

I like your reasoning, although I disagree about the presence of fold equity against any thinking opponent. I see that villain here chose not to fold his big stinky brick, and as a 37% dog, he was certainly justified in putting it in the middle.

[Truthiness24]

Don't know. It was the entire confluence of events that led me to re-pop. If it looks like he thinks about it for even a bit, I might lean to folding.

The key was that Villian <u>wasn't </u> a thinking opponent -- his bet was stinky in its size and pace -- automatic -- and given how tight he had been, this play just felt right. I still think there was fold equity, FWIW.

[justhetip]

Nice read truthiness.