PLO8 MTT - Final Table (A26Q isolate or fold w big stacks behind)

[franknagaijr]

Started with 268 players and down to 7, so we're well past the bubble, but the real payouts start at 3rd place. With this hand and this chipstack, do you

1) Fold?
2) Flat Call with the intention to fold if the big stacks muscle in?
3) Reraise?
4) Flat call with the intention of pushing if a bigger stack hops in?

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t1500/t3000
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t88186
UTG+1: t57326
MP1: t15516
CO: t19940
Hero: t34476
SB: t126476
BB: t31580

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to t9000</font>, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ....</font>,

[Buzz]

Hi Frank - Congratulations on getting that far.

As to the hand itself, I'd fold. Too great a chance of getting quartered. Not quite enough going for it for high.

I can't see committing half my chip stack here. Might be up against aces with a wheel card or two. The extra diamond takes away from the flush potential. I like to be the aggressor myself when I enter the action and MP1 beat you to it in this case. And it's a while before blinds again.

Highly opponent and read dependent, but in this case, that's tough.

Fold and wait for a better opportunity - not necessarily a better hand, just a better opportunity.

Buzz

[prodonkey]

a read on mp1 would help.. but from chip stack sizes I'd prolly fold, even if u get lucky and double up it doesn't increase your chance of winning significantly since you would have 50k and still be in 4th chip position.

[davebreal]

[ QUOTE ]
even if u get lucky

[/ QUOTE ]

a pre-flop raise in an average PLO8 MTT means any suited Ace, any A2, A23, AAhh, AAwx, 23xx, KKxx, etc.

it's a myth to believe that a suited A2Q is "behind" against an unknown player. in reality, it's often an equity favorite against the random raising hand. hell, i see LAG's raising JJ34r in MTT's all the time.

[Gitz]

3) Reraise? To 17K half your stack putting MP1 all in. This mite be enuf to force out the BB as you know the SB is going to call or raise putting you all in. You have pos'n on the SB (Big Stack) and you won't have that until it goes around again (if you make it) so I would be willing to make my stand here but hopefully you won't have to.

[franknagaijr]

Thanks for the responses. I spent a couple hours playing with the ICM calculator, and have come to the conclusion that the best option is a fold, with a flat call with the intention of folding to a tower push as the second best choice. My calculations were not exact because the Web ICM I use only allows for five prizes.

Observation 1: Hero is in the middle-bottom distribution, and has less than twice the chips of the short stack, and about 1/3 of the chips of the tower stack.

Observation 2: If hero and the short stack were involved HU, hero's prize equity would rise or fall by the exact same amount (870 to 1205 OR 870 to 535), so it would be dependent upon hero's read of the pusher whether this hand was a green light or not. Of course, there are still two players waiting to act behind.

Observation 3: If the tower stack chooses to get involved, and all of the chips go in the middle, in the best case, hero's equity raises from 870 to 1497, or a 72% improvement, while in the worst case, hero drops by 100%. This means that hero needs an exceptionally strong hand to justify getting involved with tower stack. A26Q 3 of 1 suit is not pathetic, but it is far from a monster.

Observation 4: If hero folds, and shorty is eliminated by either of the blinds, hero's equity goes up by about 10%

Observation 5: If shorty doubles up, hero's equity goes down by about 5%.

[prodonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
even if u get lucky

[/ QUOTE ]

a pre-flop raise in an average PLO8 MTT means any suited Ace, any A2, A23, AAhh, AAwx, 23xx, KKxx, etc.

it's a myth to believe that a suited A2Q is "behind" against an unknown player. in reality, it's often an equity favorite against the random raising hand. hell, i see LAG's raising JJ34r in MTT's all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why I said a read is helpful.. believe it or not, getting all your chips in with A23 or KKxx isn't great in omaha for the most part.

Purely from a chips perspective it's going to be bad to get all your chips in here vs him, too much risk, not enough reward.