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  #11  
Old 11-26-2007, 08:03 PM
Briman51 Briman51 is offline
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Posts: 53
Default Re: Top 2...facing two all-ins

didn't read the post above before writing. Awesome analysis pokey, dead on.
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  #12  
Old 11-26-2007, 09:05 PM
SDone SDone is offline
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Default Re: Top 2...facing two all-ins

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the Turn. You have the best hand no need to get fancy. Raise when in a multi-way pot. Anywhere from $.80 - $1.20 is good. Certainly call the all-ins.
Possible hands you are up against: Another 2 pair, AQ, AK, Ax, a straight with 3/4 in the hole, and maybe a set.
Looks like you are the favorite here. Call.

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How can you think I am the favorite here...2 people pushed all-in ahead of me. Clearly I have to be looking at least one of them holding the straight.

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I'm not afraid of the straight -- people don't often play 43 to a 5xBB raise preflop. You're worried about monsters under the bed, and you're right to do so, but you're worried about the WRONG monsters.

Worry about sets.

If you throw in 43 as a possibility you also have to throw in 52, because anybody playing 43 to a raise is also playing other crap. Against that range you're flipping a three-sided coin (it's an analogy; just go with it):

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Jh 5d 2s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.411% 28.98% 03.43% 37828 4480.00 { AhJd }
Hand 1: 33.795% 29.92% 03.87% 39062 5052.00 { JJ+, 55, 22, AJs, A5s, A2s, 52s, 43s, AJo, A5o, A2o, 52o, 43o }
Hand 2: 33.795% 29.92% 03.87% 39062 5052.00 { JJ+, 55, 22, AJs, A5s, A2s, 52s, 43s, AJo, A5o, A2o, 52o, 43o }
</pre><hr />

If we take out 43 and also 52, things get much better for us:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Jh 5d 2s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.729% 42.51% 07.22% 17568 2984.00 { AhJd }
Hand 1: 25.136% 21.43% 03.71% 8856 1532.00 { JJ+, 55, 22, AJs, A5s, A2s, AJo, A5o, A2o }
Hand 2: 25.136% 21.43% 03.71% 8856 1532.00 { JJ+, 55, 22, AJs, A5s, A2s, AJo, A5o, A2o }
</pre><hr />

In either case we're right to call.

You could also throw in some AK and AQ hands or some weird draws like 54, at which point things get even better for us.

It's actually hard to come up with viable ranges where you CAN'T call this raise. After all, you're getting 2.1-to-1 odds, which means you only have to win 32% of the time to be break-even. It's hard to put your opponents on a range where you don't win at least that often: if they're loose enough to play 43 they're loose enough to play lots of other hands that you're beating badly. If they're tight enough to take 43 out of their range then you're ahead of their likely holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokey, this is gonna seem weird, but I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you.
These are some of the greatest most well thought out posts ever.
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