Value & protect bet or value-check turn? 1/2 online, 55 from BTN

[Mitke]

<font color="blue"> Villain is quite aggressive. Not a maniac as he can fold hands too. Loose preflop 50/10. 28% attempt to steal blinds. Villain is capable of c/ring from betting lead. </font>


Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5BB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="purple">Hero ?? </font>


Bet...
... as we have no outs?
... to protect and for value?
... as the last bet going in as if the villain is still willing to play back at us he has something better than us?

Check...
... to ensure showdown with showdownable hand?
... to induce a bluff from aggro villain?

If we check behind turn, do we bet river if checked to?

[inferno]

Check...
... to ensure showdown with our showdownable hand

[Oink]

bet and bet.

If he raises you can fold. If he has the balls to sexy AK or AQ or cheese he will usually have 9 outs. If you can get him to fold JT its actually quite nice.

Most likely tho he is calling both turn and river with Ax

[jakbse]

Bet, to protect and for value.
- you can fold to a c/r or a river donk.
- you can get a free SD

[Mitke]

Thanks for your comments.

So opinion seems quite split:

1. check behind and call river: ~"I want to show this down", inferno

2. b/f turn and b/f river: ~"Extract value and I don't mind a fold from OCs protection", oink

3. b/f turn and check behind(?) for free showdown on river: ~"Turn value bet and don't mind a fold on protection", jaksbe

4. check behind and call river: ~"I want to show this down as this Villain will bluff bet most rivers anyway", Mitke (as played)


So, is giving a free card in this 5BB pot to most probable 9 outs (two over cards + 6s counterfeiting our pair) a bad thing? 9 outs is 4.1:1 to improve.

It seems I'd need to guesstimate how many times Villain calls both turn and river w/A-high vs. how many times will he bluff the river with any of his current holdings. I don't have time for that just now.

I'm sure check-to-induce bluff is +EV here but don't know if betting out is more.

[rzk]

i would most definitely bet. 9 outs is huge.

if he calls and checks the river it's closer but i bet again. he'll call and lose with 22-44, A highs; he'll call and win with 6x.

[Mitke]

I did some stove on this hand:

If we put Villain on the following range the equity on turn is 58-42 in our favor.

{ 99-22, A9s-A2s, KJs-K6s, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 96s+, 85s+, A9o-A5o, KJo-K8o, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

-----------
EDIT:

With the following range:
{ 99-22, A9s-A2s, KJs-K6s, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, A9o-A5o, KJo-K8o, Q8o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o }


Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board is 54-46 favourite.

Are these edges big enough to protect on the turn?

---
[ Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board is 68-32 favourite. ]

[milesdyson]

check and fold a 6 7 8 T A river and call anything else &gt; bet

IN MY OH

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
check and fold a 6 7 8 T A river and call anything else &gt; bet

IN MY OH

[/ QUOTE ]

why? we can easily make him fold a lot of 9-outers if we bet.

[milesdyson]

why did his nine outer not bet the turn on a pure blank?