150/300 stud high reraise or call on 3rd? - Page 3

Micturition Man · #21 03-23-2007, 03:06 PM

The main reason you want it heads-up is that, if you flat call 3rd, you would be letting them in for one bet in a pot that's 4 bets + antes.

Calling would only be FTOP incorrect for them if they have
a pair with no straight or flush possibilities (or a pair that happens to be very dead).

That's a very big pot for heads-up action and makes you solidly +EV agaisnt QQ.

Four-way action is very possibly -EV if your opponents have decent draws, once you factor in reverse implied odds.

Specifically the best draw is usually pretty close to even money 4-way, and a lesser draw is not in as good shape but is still very +EV on a call.

Also the intuition that a hand like ATT doesn't mind multiway action because you are shooting for aces up anyway is not really correct.

It's true you suffer somewhat less from multiway action than QQ with a random kicker, but you still take a big equity hit from those times that you make a running two pair weaker than aces up that would have beaten unimproved queens, but now loses to a bigger two pair or a straight or flush or trips.

Incidentally the antes are not as important here as people seem to think. The pot is 4 handed and 3 bets have gone in by the time the action gets to you... the antes are unlikely to be swinging your decision now.

I still think a 3-bet is the correct standard play, but if you thought nobody would fold it's wrong, at the least for tactical reasons.

It feels like a call should be correct (rather than a fold) even if you somehow knew neither opponent would fold, but I'm not really sure... if you thought you were up against QQ + two legit draws maybe a fold is right.

electrical · #22 03-23-2007, 06:33 PM

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Incidentally the antes are not as important here as people seem to think. The pot is 4 handed and 3 bets have gone in by the time the action gets to you... the antes are unlikely to be swinging your decision now.

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As pure money, no, the antes don't matter as much as the bets. The high ante makes it more likely the other players are over-playing their hands trying to win the pot early, and it should change our reads. If it were a a super-tight structure with the same action (B-I open completes, gets called and then raised by an overcard), our pair of Tens looks like crap. In this structure, it is certainly playable.

Micturition Man · #23 03-23-2007, 06:47 PM

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Incidentally the antes are not as important here as people seem to think. The pot is 4 handed and 3 bets have gone in by the time the action gets to you... the antes are unlikely to be swinging your decision now.

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As pure money, no, the antes don't matter as much as the bets. The high ante makes it more likely the other players are over-playing their hands trying to win the pot early, and it should change our reads. If it were a a super-tight structure with the same action (B-I open completes, gets called and then raised by an overcard), our pair of Tens looks like crap. In this structure, it is certainly playable.

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That's a good point actually and I did neglect that.

The reason I did though is I thought the OP said this was 200-400 or something like that, and to my knowledge those limits always have at least moderately large antes.

Plus I'm not really sure this particular sequence of actions has a much different import in a high versus low ante structure.

Imo the Q should be playing aggressively with any playable hand just because of his upcard (and the implied weakness of an open-complete and a call) in any reasonable structure.

SweetLuckyMe · #24 03-23-2007, 07:19 PM

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isnt it incorrect for them to chase making it +ev for me???

[/ QUOTE ] That's the point - it won't be very incorrect for them to chase if it's reasonably cheap. Look at avo's sim above - I don't particularly think he has the likely hand ranges great, but even taking those #'s, heads up you're around 38% equity (going from memory, it's close to that) and 4 way you're around 15% to win. The pot is decent sized already - if a raise increases your chances to wint by 2.5x then that's what must be done - else fold. Once a pot gets a few big bets in it, I'm not looking to save a half a bet or a bet, in my mind I want to focus on doing whatever I have to do to win the pot - else I want to fold while the pot's still small.

Now if the guy has Q's he's making a huge mistake not betting 4th, because if he were thinking correctly he'd bet and want you to raise him next to act and shut out the other two. Even if you had KK buried he should still want to bet and get raised, forcing it heads up. Him checking 4th is terrible in my mind if he has queens. In fact, even if he has a drawing hand, once he catches the ace he's either got 4 to broadway or a 3 flush with at least two overcards to your tens. He should *still* want to bet and get raised so it'll get down to heads up.

electrical · #25 03-23-2007, 07:34 PM

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Now if the guy has Q's he's making a huge mistake not betting 4th, because if he were thinking correctly he'd bet and want you to raise him next to act and shut out the other two. Even if you had KK buried he should still want to bet and get raised, forcing it heads up. Him checking 4th is terrible in my mind if he has queens. In fact, even if he has a drawing hand, once he catches the ace he's either got 4 to broadway or a 3 flush with at least two overcards to your tens. He should *still* want to bet and get raised so it'll get down to heads up.

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Agree completely. The knock-on effect of this is a little hard to describe though. Queens guy is not just making a mistake, he is making a mistake for hero as well. We generally want our opponents to make mistakes, but in this instance, we want Queens guy to play perfectly so we can improve both our equity positions, because ours goes up with his.

TStoneMBD · #26 03-23-2007, 11:11 PM

thanks guys, alot of good stuff in this thread. shows how little i know about stud high.

Andy B · #27 03-24-2007, 02:42 PM

By getting it heads-up, you increase your chances of winning when your two-pair hand is Tens-up rather than Aces-up. Tens-up will win against unimproved Queens, but they'll win significantly less often against unimproved Queens and two other hands. Pairs really are best heads-up, be they (72)2 or (AA)K.

frappeboy · #28 03-28-2007, 08:07 AM

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I don't agree with this. The fact is they bricked. They are going to see 5th whether you bet or not, and they will definitely appreciate being able to see it for free.

On 5th if they improve their draw or make a pair, they are calling. If not they are folding.

The time to not bloat is on 3rd (but not in this particular hand) or on 4th when someone appears to have improved their draw.

When the draws have bricked is the ideal time to get more money in.

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The point is the Hero's hand doesn't do well in a multi-way pot, is partially dead, and very likely isn't even the best hand right now. Betting 4th makes it more likely that one of the drawing hands will continue past 5th street, even if they don't improve their original draw.. One of the villians may make a small pair and decide to continue 5th because the pot has gotten so large. Or perhaps they might pickup a gutshot and decide to continue. Also, it becomes easier for you to get away from the hand if 5th comes bad, which is very important because based on what happens on 5th street you either have a hand that you'll likely go the distance with, or a hand which you'll likely muck. This bet on 4th is usually right if you likely have the best high hand, (Say a pair of aces of kings here). But in this case there is a good chance you don't even have that.