The MNF teaser

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Today I saw the following bets:

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GB +17.5 & Under 48.5

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I have Green Bay +11, Under 42 and I teased it +17/U48.

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Teaser: Seattle -4.5/over 36

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Every monday I see these teasers of the spread and the total of the MOnday Night Football game, these bets are horribly -EV. Here is why.

Since you need both legs of a teaser to hit, you must greatly increase the chance of each bet hitting by moving it by 6 points (or 6.5 or 7 or whatever). The whole point of the Wong teaser (see FAQ for an explenation of Wong teasers) is that you move the line across numbers that hit alot, thus increasing the chance of each leg hitting enough for it to be +EV.

Now ignore those key numbers and just think about the spread vs. the total. The historic distribution of spreads is much narrower thant he historic distribution of the total. From RJP's e-book (download here) 50% of games are decieded by between 4 and 17 points, while the 50% of games have a total between 32 and 51 points. The variance of the distribution of the total is much greater than that of the spread, so moving the total by x points is worth much less than moving the spread x points. And since moving the spread alone (with out using the Wong system) is not +EV, there is no way that moving the total can be.

You are giving up a ton teasing the total. If you want to make a bet on MNF just for it to be interesting and you have done little to no capping it would be better to just chose a side randomly than tease the spread and the total. If you really want to tease the spread then do it with an upcoming game (preferably a wongable game). If you really want to tease the spread and want to have the bet deciede before the night is over tease the spread with the spread of some basketball game.