Rip my logic cause I'm a newbie

[Propping Fool]

I am thinking of blindly betting huge favorties in NFL and College (more so college). Moneyline bets only. A good example would be the colts titans game. For argument sake, lets say the line is -900. Cant the tiatns pull of an upset once every 9 or 10 times? I dont see it happening. I am totally new to sb though and looking for pros to explain why these bets are -ev.

I am only trying to make 5% on my br every week. the strategy is to bet as many games possible. Lets say I have a 10k br, then I find 15 games to bet...I would bet $666 per game. Of course there will be some upsets, but I am only looking to turn a profit of $500 for the week.

Rip away, Im sure this has been discussed before in this forum. I dont have the time or energy to get into sb deaply, so maybe this is my best play?

[lastchance]

This is awful. Big favorites are overvalued by the public a ton. You don't want to bet big favorites.

[Propping Fool]

Can you use the Colts example to elaborate please?

[Homer]

I don't know about blindly betting all heavy favorites, but Colts -900 is a good bet.

[livin_a_lie]

The colts are -1900 right now...

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
The colts are -1900 right now...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, just going on what this guy said in his OP.

[Propping Fool]

wow, when i checked this morning pinny had the colts -900.

Please comment on the overall strategy ty in advance.

[splashpot]

As I understand it, the books know that the public overvalues the heavy favorites. And they shade the odds to reflect that assumption. So according to this theory, you'd be better off betting the underdogs. I'm not an expert on this though.

[brendanb438]

OP if this truely was profitable longterm we all would be doing this. You will have some huge upsets every now and again and with the huge -1000 + odds 1 upset can set you back bigtime.

-Brendan

[Propping Fool]

I am going to evenly distibute my br per game. I am diversifying this way.