$15 Horse MTT nut low and low flush on a paired board

[T. Chance]

Hi,

This is my first post here, so first I wanted to thank everybody who is posting here. I've been reading you more and more lately, and it certainly improved my game.

I don't know if I should have posted this in the MTT section, but it has more to do with LO8 strategy than with MTT strategy.

The hand in itself may not be really interesting, since the betting would probably have been capped on all street, anyway, but it shows the kind of problem I'm often facing on the river.

This hand occurs in a $15 Horse MTT on Poker Stars and it's one of the first Omaha hands, so I don't have much reads on my opponents at that point. Later, i'll find that BB is very loose and agressive, and I don't think he has any clue on how to play most games (especially stud). The other two are tight and passive I think.

PokerStars (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: hero is CO with , , , . SB posts a blind of 15.
3 folds, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, MP2 calls, hero calls, Button raises, BB calls, MP2 calls, hero calls.

Flop: , , (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, hero calls, Button raises, BB raises, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB raises, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, hero raises, Button calls, BB raises, MP2 folds, hero calls, Button raises, BB calls, hero calls.

On the flop, I first call because I strongly suspect I'm not the only nut low around, so my first concern was to keep the button in the pot. Then he raised, so I guessed I could safely cap the bet while keeping all my opponents around.
My main question though is on the river.
Anybody with a set has just made a full house, and anybody could have a better flush than mine, even somebody with just a pair on the flop might have made a full house.
I'm also pretty sure there is at least one other nut low, and very likely there's two of them. When the betting first gets to me, I might get 7/8thed (would you say 7/8thed ?). More likely, chances are, I'm either winning 1/6th of the pot or 3 third of it. Do you think it is still right to bet ?
When the betting comes back to me one villain has folded, should I cap ?
More generally, I often have troubles deciding on the river wether I should bet or not when I'm not playing for some unusual fraction of the pot against several players.
Is there some intuitive way to know this sort of things ?

Thank you for reading this.

[franknagaijr]

Welcome, and might I say this is a very well written post #1. You have single-handedly rebuked DaveBreale's laments.

Because this is a public MTT, the thought process will be slightly different from that of a cash game, and your concerns about likely holdings of your opponents will be morphed into concerns about goofball holdings that are clear folds to a studied player, but seem to find their way to show down. In the case at hand, my thinking would be as follows:

1) Preflop - make a pot-builder raise. You're unlikely to drive anybody else, and you can continue building your half of the pot if you flop favorably.
2) Flop - In a cash game, you might be worried about being quartered. At this level of an MTT, I would assign a much higher probability of your low being unique here. You will regularly find unstudied players who are excited about any qualified low, and will call to showdown with terrible lows and no real draws for high. Since you also have a wheel draw, counterfeit protection, and middling flush draw, pump it up!
3) Turn - We have a reasonable chance of scooping with this hand, as opposed to this same situation in a cash game. With some frequency, you will see even worse heart flushes than what you have, and sometimes players with a straight will refuse to drop out. Pump it up!
4) River - a mild bummer, but we're probably still okay for unique high. You can slow down here, unless you've seen enough hands to be certain you're playing with morans, in which case you pump it up.

BTW - I believe the correct term for receiving 1/8th of the pot is 'octivated'.

[Buzz]

T. Chance - Welcome to the forum. I see that Frank Nagai has already answered, but I usually like to comment before I read anyone else's answers. That way it's my own perspective, which sometimes is a different way of looking at things.

Before the flop. Betting round number 1 - Fine. You have a very nice starting hand, even though it is lacking in high card strength. (You'd much rather the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - or even the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). Still, you play the cards you're dealt, and yours are certainly better than average. You probably have the best starting hand at the table.

At the outset, it looks like you want to keep these opponents in the hand as much as possible. But that could all change after the flop.

As I'm sure you're well aware, the object of this game is to scoop. You promote your low hands into scoopers by betting so as to knock out better high hands, which you often can do. Exactly how to do this often requires some finesse rather than a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" direct frontal assault. But sometimes you want that fullback plunge into the center of the line approach, just so as not to be too predictable.

Thus exactly what to do with this hand on the first betting round is very dependent on how your opponents will think you're playing, which is very dependent on how you have been playing.

The way you played it is fine. Some other approaches would have been fine too.

After the flop. Betting round number 2 Nice, safe, flop for you. You're almost assured of getting part of this pot. You should be thinking about how you might get all or 3/4 of it.

You see four hearts, meaning nine are missing. Thus there are 9*8/2=36 ways any one of your opponents could hold exactly two hearts plus any other two non-hearts. An opponent could also hold three or four hearts, but let's ignore that for now.

Suppose that an opponent does hold exactly two hearts (plus any two non-hearts). Do you know how often one of the two hearts your opponent holds will be higher than a ten?

The answer is 26 times out of 36. Thus the odds are 26 to 10 or about two and a half to one that if an opponent does hold exactly two hearts (plus any two non-hearts), your opponent's heart draw is better than yours.

The 10 comes from 5*4/2=10, which is the number of two card missing heart combinations with less that a ten as the higher card. Then 36-10=26 is where the 26 comes from.

At any rate, since you only have a ten high flush draw, you should think about possibly knocking out a jack, queen, or king flush draw. Is there a way to do that? If you make it a double bet to Button, will Button possibly put you on the nut flush draw and fold a jack, queen, or king flush draw?

I don't know the answer (which depends on Button's character, Button's impression of you, and the cards Button holds), but that's the promotion to scoop type thinking. You can afford to raise, because you have the nut low (and with back-up, to boot).
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, I first call because I strongly suspect I'm not the only nut low around, so my first concern was to keep the button in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]Very reasonable. Do you also now see the other play, the way to possibly promote your hand into a scooper? (rhetorical)

After the turn. Betting round number 3.
Now you've made your flush, but it would be pretty easy for an opponent to have a better one. And if so, you're stuck playing for half the pot. There's no realistic way you now can knock out an opponent with a better flush than you.

In other words, it's a lot easier to get rid of a queen high flush draw than a queen high made flush. So the window of that opportunity has closed. And with the betting, you have to seriously suspect an opponent has a higher flush than you.

So now you should be wanting to be back-peddling. You might not be back-peddling, but that's what you should want to be doing, because it looks very much as though you are headed for a quarter or a sixth of this pot. I'd simply call, hope Button does the same, and hope for the best. But it looks grim.

On the river. Betting round number 4.
And I'd do the same on the river as the turn. Looks even bleaker than after BB bet the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm also pretty sure there is at least one other nut low, and very likely there's two of them.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree.
[ QUOTE ]
When the betting first gets to me, I might get 7/8thed (would you say 7/8thed ?).

[/ QUOTE ]No. You could get quartered, sixthed, or eighthed for low. You figure to get eighthed with ace-deuce for low at a full table roughly one time per thousand, and when it happens, it's not much worse than getting sixthed, which happens somewhere in the neighborhood of one time out of sixteen (something like that, as I recall). If you somehow win the high, which is very unlikely, you'll win 3/4, 4/6, or 5/8. There is no way you can win 7/8.
[ QUOTE ]
More likely, chances are, I'm either winning 1/6th of the pot or 3 third of it.

[/ QUOTE ]I think most likely is 1/4 or 1/6.[ QUOTE ]
Do you think it is still right to bet ?

[/ QUOTE ]No. But there's enough in the pot that you call.

Buzz

P.S. After I wrote the above, but before posting, I read Frank Nagai's response to you. He would play it differently, and perhaps his way works better than mine this time. (Or perhaps not). It's at least good to consider different ways of playing a hand.

Buzz

[T. Chance]

Thanks for these great replies. I'm glad you liked the way it was written, franknagaijr, because I'm french, and I was afraid it was filled with mistakes.

Preflop I didn't cap because my hand is mostly playing for low and if I don't flop a low draw, I'll have to fold. Now, I understand that I need to build a pot while some are willing to call. So capping was maybe better.

On the flop, I doubt I can get a king or queen high flush draw to fold, but maybe somoene with 7-8 might fold and 6's might become outs.

On the turn, if find interresting that you disagree. I decided to bet at that point beacause, I was not too concerned about winning only 1/6, maybe I should have, and as long as everybody stayed in the pot I could bet and not lose anything if I was 3/4ed, since I had conterfeit protection (which other nut lows might not have). That's why I bet : nothing to lose everything to win.

On the river you agree on slowing down and that's mostly why I posted this hand. I was of course not considering folding.

What I meant by "7/8thed" was winning 1/8 of the pot, not 7/8 of it. Thanks franknagaijr for the word octivated.
When I wrote 3 third, I meant 2 third of course.

Ok thanks again. Here are the results

tommi1212: shows [2c 8c 5d Ad] (HI: two pair, Nines and Fives; LO: 7,5,4,2,A)
longminh: shows [4d 2s Ac 3d] (HI: two pair, Nines and Fours; LO: 7,5,4,2,A)
T_Chance: shows [As 3c Th 2h] (HI: a flush, Ten high; LO: 7,5,4,2,A)
T_Chance collected 1358 from pot
longminh collected 453 from pot
T_Chance collected 452 from pot
tommi1212 collected 452 from pot

It turned out they all had good starting hands and got excited without any decent high but straight draws.

[Truthiness24]

'octivated'

nh