How to spot a flopped monster....Rule number 1 and 2

Dan Bitel · #1 04-12-2006, 08:04 PM

Oh god, in a way, I can't believe I'm even posting this, but I'm going to anyway. Here's rules number 1 and 2 about how to spot a monster:

1) a villain who's normally aggressive on the flop checks
2) a minraise on the turn

Given these two rules, what am I to do here. I went with my normal rule: "never fold a set". But, what am i actually ahead of here? AK I suppose, and I think he bets out AK on the flop. BTW, I limped UTG b/c at this table it felt right. My 1st turn bet was so small b/c he either had a monster or nothing. Can I actually even consider taking a different line here?!?!?

BTW, villain was 30/15, and had cbetted nearly every flop so far

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $200.20
UTG+1: $275.15
CO: $101.80
Button: $138.50
SB: $232.05
BB: $200

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero calls, UTG+1 raises to $9, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($21, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21, 2 players)
Hero bets $10, UTG+1 raises to $20, Hero raises to $65, UTG+1 calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($151, 2 players)
Hero bets $131, UTG+1 calls.

Results:
Final pot: $413

BalugaWhale · #2 04-12-2006, 08:12 PM

When he checks the flop, I weight KK in his range here every time.

You have to know your villain for this though. The only hands I really think are possible here are AA and KK, and I think AA only checks the flop when its OOP (possibly for a C/r, or to C/r the turn).

I don't know, maybe I've just seen top set checked down too many times by bad players. Its tough to get rid of your set (ever), but this seems like one time to slow down at least.

Go_Blue88 · #3 04-12-2006, 08:16 PM

Baluga- Uhhh OK, it's one fraction of his range.

This line is fine. I'd almost never slow down here.

BalugaWhale · #4 04-12-2006, 08:18 PM

what else do you put in here go_blue? A slowplayed AK?

Thats certainly a possibility.

Yaboosh · #5 04-12-2006, 08:22 PM

I don't know, I think Baluga is right. Nothing else makes sense. What wouldn't he cbet the flop with?

How have his cbets worked out for him? Has he been taking most of the pots down? Has he been called/raised off his whiffs? Has he cbetted even when hitting top pair?

QQ/JJ/TT/88 all might check behind out of fear, but that makes no sense when the villian wakes up on the turn. What wakes up on the turn?

You have one chance and one chance only to win this hand I imagine, and that is against AK, but honestly, what chronic cbetter checks that on the flop?

Go_Blue88 · #6 04-12-2006, 08:31 PM

What does 30/15 mean?

I'll try to give him a range. Maybe I'm wrong about this one after further consideration.

BalugaWhale · #7 04-12-2006, 08:32 PM

He's opening pots with a lot of hands (15%), but according to dbitel's read, he c-bets all of them.

Hence the concern.

Yaboosh · #8 04-12-2006, 08:34 PM

The problem is would villain think AK on this flop is strong enough to slow play? Obviously we know it isn't, but that isn't to say that the villain doesn't think this is a monster.

If he has KK, why not push the turn bet? You obviously love your hand. Frankly, you either win against a strangely played AK, or you got two outted.

Isura · #9 04-12-2006, 08:35 PM

I don't 3-bet the turn, and if I do, it is more than $65. River bet is too big, he might even get away from AK here.

Yaboosh · #10 04-12-2006, 08:36 PM

There is a 0% chance he is folding AK here. If he has AK, he slowplayed it. If he slowplayed it, he overvalues it. AK just improved. He is not folding it.

Since AK is the only thing we can conceivably beat, I think if you are putting more money into the pot, the all in river bet may have been the only choice.