A post about why we're all winners (but im still a loser)

[Bond18]

So I’ve been losing online, for some time now, 5 months really. Over roughly an 80,000 hand sample (35k on poker tracker but in the few months before that I can VERY confidently say I put in at least 45k more) playing 24/16/2.5 poker I am a monstrous loser. After getting PT and PAHUD and noticing how many 40/20/1, 10/5/1.5, 60/30/2.5, not to mention god knows how many 30/15/1.4 players there are out there, very few of which probably put much thought into their game (certainly not on a daily obsessive level like us poker geeks), a thought occurred to me. Against these players, at these limits, playing as I am and always attempting to improve, how long can I really lose for? Can these players plus the rake really have the edge over me long term? (Even more disturbing about my losing streak was in that stretch I was receiving a weekly payment of anywhere from 62.5 to 100% RB depending on the site I was on and still in that period did not show a profit.)

Alright here’s another question. If a top pro, say Johnny Chan, Howard Lederer, or even some of the guys on this forum whose knowledge of the game freaks me out, sits 1 table of online 15/30 6 max and plays perfect poker (not perfect in the idea that when an opponent bluffs T high he knows about it and calls down on J high, but perfect in that all his decisions cause him to gain the most when he’s ahead and lose the least when he’s behind) what’s this players max BB/100 expected rate? It’s up for debate but upon conferring with other expert players we settled in the area of 4-5 BB’s. For arguments sake, let’s make it 4.5 (by all means post your on thoughts on what this number is.)

Now assuming that 4.5 BB/100 is the absolute perfect maximum amount of you can earn from an online game with a standard mix of players per hour lets start to look at what happens every time you make a mistake. Lets throw in some very plausible mistakes that could perhaps occur, once per 100 hands. First lets say you reach the river on a board that you’ve been betting the whole way but the turn and river have made it nasty, so you play it safe and check. Unfortunately your opponent checks behind with a hand he would have called one more bet with, down to 3.5. Now a few hands later, lets say your facing a river bet with the pot laying you 8.5 to 1. You decide the odds aren’t there on your hand and fold, but in fact you were incorrect and the odds your opponent was bluffing or worse than you was in fact 7 to 1, you lose another 1.5 down to 2BB/100. Lastly let’s say your facing a river raise on a pot that’s 11 to 1 and estimate the odds your opponent would bluff raise you here are 10 to 1 and call. Boom, your down to your 1BB/100. If your not careful from there all of sudden you’re a losing player. This is why we have to be studious, this is why we have to pour over HH after HH debating, fold this river or call this river? This is why you pay coaches, and why you pour over your 1000’s of hands thinking “how can I improve my win rate by .25BB/100? Where’s the holes???”

Now here’s the comforting part ladies and gentleman. While this example demonstrates why we strive for such enormous perfection in our play, it misses one aspect, your opponents play is often and likely much worse. I witnessed a hand today that put all my fears that I’d never win again permanently to rest when I realized its significance.

Playing 10/20 6 max on pacific I was dealt 7 7 in the BB
Utg limped, utg+1 limped, CO folds, button raises, SB calls, I call, limpers call

Flop: Q 6 3 rainbow
SB checks, I check, utg checks, utg+1 checks, button bets, SB raises, I fold, utg folds, utg+1 folds, button calls.

Turn: 3
SB bets, button raises, SB 3 bets, button calls.

River: 9
SB bets, button calls.

The SB held 62 offsuit. The button held QT offsuit.

While you don’t see players playing like this every hand of every day I realized something from watching it. If you play well, work hard, study and try to learn, then against the field of opponents we face today, in the end you are the favorite to win. Sure perhaps of 10’s of thousands of hands you will be losing, but with enough time, and within your bankroll, over enough hands, you will win. While we surely make mistakes daily, look how many, and of such magnitude, our opponents make against us. None of us are actually stupid enough to 3 bet the turn on what’s now bottom pair bottom kicker against a player who raised us on the flop. We couldn’t be as bad as them if we tried. So keep at it, keep reading, it’ll turn around eventually, I’m sure of it.

[kahntrutahn]

So I know both places you play, the question is, who are you? =)


And yes, what you speak is the truth... *edit* But I don't think even world class players are pulling 4.5 bb/100 sustainable.

[Lestat]

Very good and interesting post. This is why I've decided to up my taste in EV. While it's certainly possible to run flat (or bad?) through 80k hands of 6max, doing so most likely means a low +EV.

I've decided that such low EV even online is unacceptable to me. Something would need to change. Either the # of tables I'm playing, the limit, the game,... Something. I am no longer willing to play 80k hands with nothing to show for it. If you have the roll, the time, and are not pressed to make money, then I guess there's nothing wrong with riding it out and improving as you go. That's just not for me.

[kelvin474]

what?

If I correctly call with a 1/8 chance of winning when getting 8.5:1, i make

1/8*8.5 - 1*7/8 = about 0.2 BB. If I incorrectly fold in that situation I made 0 BB. So it's a 0.2 BB mistake.

[Bond18]

Oops, thanks for pointing that out kelvin, i worded that section of the post wrong, its 4am in my time zone and im kind of rambling without doing enough proof reading. Long story short everytime we muck up that perfect number (what do you guys reckon it is) slips further and further out of reach.

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
Now assuming that 4.5 BB/100 is the absolute perfect maximum amount of you can earn from an online game with a standard mix of players per hour lets start to look at what happens every time you make a mistake. Lets throw in some very plausible mistakes that could perhaps occur, once per 100 hands. First lets say you reach the river on a board that you’ve been betting the whole way but the turn and river have made it nasty, so you play it safe and check. Unfortunately your opponent checks behind with a hand he would have called one more bet with, down to 3.5. Now a few hands later, lets say your facing a river bet with the pot laying you 8.5 to 1. You decide the odds aren’t there on your hand and fold, but in fact you were incorrect and the odds your opponent was bluffing or worse than you was in fact 7 to 1, you lose another 1.5 down to 2BB/100. Lastly let’s say your facing a river raise on a pot that’s 11 to 1 and estimate the odds your opponent would bluff raise you here are 10 to 1 and call. Boom, your down to your 1BB/100. If your not careful from there all of sudden you’re a losing player. This is why we have to be studious, this is why we have to pour over HH after HH debating, fold this river or call this river? This is why you pay coaches, and why you pour over your 1000’s of hands thinking “how can I improve my win rate by .25BB/100? Where’s the holes???”


[/ QUOTE ]

The math in this paragraph is incorrect.

Lets say that you are getting 9:1 and call. If it turns out that you are only good 1/11 rather than the 1/10 you need to break even you lose:
1 BB 10 times and win 9 once, making the EV of your rivercall -1/11BB.

[Bond18]

Indeed, im going to go up and edit/reword that part, thanks for heads up.

Edit: Forgot i can't edit it after its had replies. This is why people proof read. God knows how many times on the thread i'll be told to go reread my skalansky...

[cartman]

You can make a very, very nice income playing 3/6 and I know if I were in your shoes that is exactly where I would go. I made around $50/hr 4-tabling the 3/6 full games on Party early last year. They didn't have 3/6 (6-max) back then, but if I were to play 3/6 now it would definitely be the 6-max games. It is easy to get trapped into thinking you aren't one of the "boys" or you aren't a very good player if you play low limit games, but that is untrue and a very poor reason for any of us to choose what limit we play. The vast majority of people in this world make far less money than most of us could make playing 3/6 or even lower and they have to face bosses, jobs they hate, and numerous other problems that we don't have to deal with. At least they don't have variance [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Cartman

[Bond18]

Funny you should say that. I just put 4000 in party to play 3/6 and 5/10 on while i work on turning my winrate around. Am i embarassed about this? Well yes a little, dropping limits is always a little bit of swallowing pride. But hey, i'd rather do that than be a loser.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
(not perfect in the idea that when an opponent bluffs T high he knows about it and calls down on J high, but perfect in that all his decisions cause him to gain the most when he’s ahead and lose the least when he’s behind)

[/ QUOTE ]
bit of a nitpick, but if this were true he would in fact raise with his J high.

if the bolded statement were true for any player, the top-end winrate would be significantly higher than 4.5 BB/100.