Can you NL players embarrass the MTT players? (X-post)

[Thinkards]

Zee, I think your bottom set is in deep trouble here.

From your description of the BB, he probably has noticed that UTG is capable of making big bluffs, etc. Also, it probably is not lost on him that you are playing loose, but rather tight and aggressive post-flop.

It would not surprise me at all if BB also were going for a check-raise on this flop. With either top or middle set, he may have been looking to trap the BB and, if you had come along for the ride, then all the better. When the flop got checked around, he decided he needed to raise, but remembered at the last second that the BB was yet to act behind. So his announcing a "call" was an attempt at giving the BB the chance he needed to make an attempt at taking the pot with a huge raise. Unfortunately for him, however, he already had put out multiple chips, and thus had committed himself to a raise before he could think about what he might have been doing.

If you reraised here with your set, my guess is that your stack got decimated.


TK

[FiSheYe]

Hmm I don't know what the key is but with the given description and our huge chipstacks I like a simple fold against his raise. If you can correctly narrow him down to AsKs then you can reraise him or play the river perfectly but I don't think there is enough given information to make this assumption. QJ is rare but there is a slight chance for it and TT is definately within this range not to forget the deadly AA, KK combo.
I don't see a point to really get involved into a huge pot at this stage of the tournament. Hard to believe that the "key" gives you clear information what to do and what exactly he has. Nobody mentioned that he could overvalue a hand like KsQs? I dunno how likely an angelshoot is here but the pot is super small compared to the stacksizes.. Seems like you have good control of your table and there is no necessarity to go any further with this hand.

Edit: I actually read the "key" now but I disagree that this statement gives us a clear answer how to proceed. I think you overvalue the given information and narrow down to much due to what you believe is logical, most of those people aren't as logical as you might think. I think the argument
a) it's a smallish pot compared to the stacksizes
b) it's very likely we are far behind
c) there is a high chance it is an angleshoot and/or he really wanted to call but with a hand that wants to trap

gives enough explination to make a fold superior to calling.

[RyanR]

I think an important fact is that the Armenian guy who loves to bluff and pick up reads thought about bluffing but then noticed something that made him decide against it... This seems like a fold to me, based mostly on the fact its hard to put him on a hand you can beat.

[def NOT racist]

WELL ??? are those BUTT faces EMBARASED YET ?????

[Mr. S-inator]

This is easy. He was adamant about meaning to just flat call which telegraphs a weak hand. The player, unless retarded, must know that his protestation exposes his hand as weak.

In this hand, only the nuts or close to the nuts would want to seem weak. Any other weak hand and the guy would be quiet.

He does not want to be put under pressure when he has mediocre holdings or a tough spot. This is a very important game for him. Ten thousand dollars means a lot. No way in hell would he A) make such a big mistake by throwing in 5k B)after making such a mistake, let everyone know the strength of his hand. He wants to induce a stupid bluff from the Armenian and thinks that your holding is too weak to play.

Furthermore, His range is what? AA KK AK? That alone makes it a fold but when you analyze his speech, the decision is simpler. I'm a bad player so I call and c/f river but this is probably a fold.

[ALAEI]

I min raise the turn. This is one of those tricky spots that come up like when a guy bets before you out of turn and you have a monster. I think if you're beat you are going to go broke regardless since IMO you cannot fold this hand in this spot and you have to maxamize your value for when you are ahead. I think QQ and JJ are extremely likely from this player and if he's a little tilted from his play he may justify calling the raise and re-evaluating the river. Also, there's the possibility of him being so distraught at the play, create the illusion of fold equity and go nuts and shove with some one pair hand. I think calling and checking the river is the worst thing you can do behind folding. The very few times this opponent will bluff the river dont make up for the amount of value you sacrafice by getting him to showdown free. Given preflop, this guy always has at least a pair and will check behind all one pair hands on the river. I prefer to min raise rather than shove the turn because people talk themselves into doing all kinds of crazy things when there's still "fold equity".

Although a possibilty I don't think AA and KK are that likely at all. I think that if he would do this with AA/KK he would also do it with AK.

[ALAEI]

For some reason I thought we had 20k chips, not 30k. Not sure if this changes anything for me. I still don't like call/check call, and I still hate folding. At the same time, I don't really like felting this hand on the turn after flop gets checked around. It all comes down to feel. You have to instinctually decide if it's better to try to induce bad play or go for pot size management since there will never be a "long run" for this situation. Against most typical players, Call/bet fold is a better line than call/check call. Barring some extraordinary read, much more than the description given, I would never flat out fold or call/check fold.

[snagglepuss]

i would check the turn here and it doesn't seem very close to me at all

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

[ QUOTE ]
i would check the turn here as played and it doesn't seem very close to me at all and there is no way in hell I'm c/ring the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[BraveJayhawk]

I'll take a stab.

The BB qualifying via satellite is the 'key' to the hand.

Villain either has a hand strong enough to slow play on the flop and slow play again on the turn or a had a hand in which he backed into (TT). After the mis-bet, his hand is strong enough to withstand a re-raise or all-in bet. I'll guess QsJs or TT.

Also, the Armenian player 'likes to bluff, get tricky, and overvalues the importance of reads,' so maybe Villain is playing off of this a bit and hoping he does something silly.

TT is certainly a possibility. He may have simply been stunned and forgot to consider the option to raise. I don't think he has AK, because I think he would make a raise 'to protect his hand' or 'push out the draws'. AA and KK coincide with this thinking, but they are stronger hands, so maybe he did intend to slow play again and hope for the best.

I am confident the key to the hand is that he won a satellite and playing in his first WPT event. He plays straight-forward. He has the best hand. If he has AK or worse, he is not going to broke. He's happy to be there and enjoying his conversation about football.

Fold or hope he has AK, call and c/f river.