AA waits till turn

[Gurravasa]

[ QUOTE ]
this is wrong and everything you've said is based on this faulty assumption. put some ranges into stove if you dont believe me.

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You should be careful with stating whats wrong or right in a hand analyzis. You don't know villains donking range and I don't claim to knów it either. If he's a good player he should have something since it's a good spot to donk a set or twopair and a terrible spot to donk top or middle pair. In my posts I have said that I assume he's a decent player and therefor I rule out hands like MP,BP and air.

This is how my stove came out:

Hand 0: 31.021% 30.82% 00.20% 2124016 13600.67 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 22.672% 21.93% 00.74% 1511018 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K8s-K4s, Q9s-Q7s, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 2: 46.306% 45.56% 00.74% 3139594 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o, K7o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

We have better equity than I estimated, but it's hard to put the limper on a range. If we put his range to ATC as OP says our equity rise to 35%

[Tryptamean]

[ QUOTE ]
This is how my stove came out:

Hand 0: 31.021% 30.82% 00.20% 2124016 13600.67 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 22.672% 21.93% 00.74% 1511018 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K8s-K4s, Q9s-Q7s, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 2: 46.306% 45.56% 00.74% 3139594 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o, K7o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

We have better equity than I estimated, but it's hard to put the limper on a range. If we put his range to ATC as OP says our equity rise to 35%

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yep, fairly high, even if we are always only up against flush draws, oesd, and pairs+... if we add in all the gutters, unimproved overs, Axo hands, our equity gets much higher, which is more realistic imo... UTG+1 will also be peeling (and calling a raise) on the flop with a lot of hands that are drawing dead/almost dead against us.. those same hands wont put any money in on the turn most of the time.

[chrimill]

I just ran a poker stove where i gave UTG+1 ATC and BB all the reasonable hands that would connect moderate to good with this flop,(i.e. A7, pocket pairs 33-99 and all the low connectors that would now have two pair, pair+gut) and we have a 51.2% equity. This assumes he would slowplay a straight, adding a flopped straight into the mix changes our equity to 42.3%, still good enough to raise if UTG+1 literally has ATC(which is probably not the case). So I believe that the answer as to whether you should raise the flop depends on what you think the BB's range is, if it includes all hands that connected well with the flop wait until the turn and re-evalutate based on the action. If it is skewed more towards hands that connected moderately, i.e he is betting all one pairs, two pairs, and draws and slow playing monsters(sets and straights) then a raise is definitely in order. Put another way, since you can't eliminate UTG+1 with a raise and you can't reasonably put him on a hand use the BB's betting range as a guide for your actions.