[Cross-Post from MSNL] Something you guys don't do enough

[skier_5]

Shoving over late position short stacker opens. The ranges here are just an example and feel free to make your own. My math reflects these ranges and shows you on the EV you are missing out on.

You have a few situations

Assume 20bb stacks

1) shortstacker 3x otb and you are the BB. There is their raise + sb + bb in the pot or 4.5bb. So you are risking 19bb to win 4.5bb. If we use

these ranges (the shortstackers will adjust and you will have to adjust your range accordingly)

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 66.810% 65.48% 01.33% 26771923296 542041176.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Hand 1: 33.190% 31.86% 01.33% 13026964656 542041176.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


So in this 40.5bb pot when called you will have 33.2% equity, or 13.45bb, so when your shove is called you lose 19-13.45bb or 5.55bb.

So this means that

0 (breakeven) = x*4.5bb -(1-x)*5.5bb

is the breakeven point

0=4.5x - 5.5 +5.5x
5.5 = 10x
x= 0.55

This means you only have to win the pot 55% of the time to be breakeven.

Now let's revist the shortstackers range - { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ } - this compromises 5.1% of hands. Many shortstackers attempt to steal is as high

as 40%.

5.1/40 = 12.75%.

They are only calling you ~13% of the time. of a required 45%. This is hugely +EV for you. huge. and hugely -EV for them and who wants them ruining our games anymore amirite?


----------------------------------------------------------

You can figure this out for a few more situations. The pot will always be the same so you only have to change a few things in our equation.

if they minraise out of the sb

0 (breakeven) = x*3bb -(1-x)*5.5bb
0 = 4x -5.5 +5.5x
5.5 = 9.5x
x = 58%

They don't have to fold much more often.

But skier, what if they widen their range?

Example A)

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 56.722% 54.42% 02.30% 69847911740 2951209546.00 { 44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo }

Hand 1: 43.278% 40.98% 02.30% 52593703184 2951209546.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


This time their calling range comrpomises 15.8% of total hands. or 40% of their opening range.

BUT our equity is better this time so in a 40.5bb pot we have 43.3% or 17.54bb. So now our equation is:

0 (breakeven) = x*4.5bb -(1-x)*1.46bb
0 = 4.5 - 1.46 +1.46
1.46 = 5.96x
x = 24.5%

Since they are folding 60% of their range this is hugely +EV.

Discuss.

[ikestoys]

wait, so people don't shove over opens by 20bb stacks?

[dirtylobster]

nh

[BombayBadboy]

[ QUOTE ]
wait, so people don't shove over opens by 20bb stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading skiers post, I clearly didnt enough.

[Vavavoom]

Added to Favourites

[skier_5]

I just wanna add that you wanna be careful and make sure they are actually playing like this because they may adjust their opening range and make shoving some hands -EV, but if you keep track of how they are adjusting and keep stats you should be fine.

Just trying to open your eyes to this.

[ikestoys]

oh and it gives you a [censored] image, which is great

[Pokerfarian]

Hand 1: 33.190% 31.86% 01.33% 13026964656 542041176.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
This isn't the right way to do things. This shows that shoving that range is more profitable than folding that range. Obviously shoving AA is profitable. It doesn't mean shoving, say A2 which might have a lot less equity than our overall range does is profitable. It probably is +EV given everything else, but it might not be. You have to select borderline hands like A2o, see what equity that has & see if that is profitable itself. Against someone with JJ calling every time, shoving AA-TT is profitable. It doesnt mean you should shove TT.

[Nielsio]

It becomes interesting when you have a mid pp and the opener has ten times his opening raise.

[Igloo9]

looking at this another way, at what villain stack size does this not become a good play given our range? 30 BB, 40 BB,..etc?