30nl AA value bet or value shove river? What else?

[vixticator]

My image is very very tiltish (poor calls), lost a few big pots in a row but been getting great cards recently. At least my last 3 orbits it seems like I am in every pot and on tilt, basically.

Loose-passive 44/3/0.6 btw.

IMO this hand he never checks with a hand that beats me. How much do I bet? Play any street different?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $60
UTG: $80.40
Hero (BTN): $70.55
SB: $130.65

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.30, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.65</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.35

Flop: ($3.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.15</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $9.90</font>, Hero calls $6.75

Turn: ($23.55) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $11.10</font>, Hero calls $11.10

River: ($45.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $47.90 and is All-In</font>

[PJo336]

What range are you assigning? Also if you shove the river why not shove the turn?

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
What range are you assigning? Also if you shove the river why not shove the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]I think he could possibly have a five before the river (or even a 7), forgot to mention reads... loose-passive {40/3/0.6}. Any kind of ovepair or five is likely. Until he checks the river. Now I think a 5 is out of the question almost.

[PJo336]

I dont like shoving the river, I dont see what calls that you beat. Maybe half potish, then ur commited but i think it gets you calls from random pps and a misplayed 7. Turn bet is so weak. Does he usually bet weak with good hands? cuz that looks like he was making a move, failed, but then figured hed take one more shot on the turn. All i see is A7 (or some other random 7 since hes 40/3), a PP, or total air, none of which a shove will get a call from.

[Josh!]

Do you think he's capable of trying to be "clever" and checking to induce a bet on your part?

[bknollenberg]

i'd value bet river, cry if he shoves and probably still call, but i'm probably raising the turn. he has air or a 7, possibly something like 88.

[Freer0llin]

Based on the action I have would have 3-bet the flop, and upped it to $24 or so. At this point I'd fold to a 4-bet all in and push any turn if he calls. I find UTG limpers are often limping with small to medium pocket pairs and high connectors, especially suited ones which makes this board pretty safe. Sure he could have 5-7 or 7-7 but I dont think he check-raises the flop with those hands. I think a hand like 9-9 or T-T plays it exactly the way the villain did.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think he's capable of trying to be "clever" and checking to induce a bet on your part?

[/ QUOTE ]It's possible given my image, assuming he pays attention. There is no reason though to think I will do anything other than call off my chips, lol. The problem I guess is my hand looks like AK. And, he's too loose to assign any kind of tight range. The problem is that he's so unaggressive that I'd be surprised if he raised without a hand on the flop, shocked even.

Mayyyyybe an OESD on flop. I can't see this being air.

[PJo336]

I dont see bet flop bet turn c/r river often, turn bet mixed with river check looks like he has crap

[Josh!]

It's real hard to put him on anything here unless he stubbornly called with Kx on the flop, and even then the check on the river is kinda ridiculous with that holding. An overpair is playing the hand faster, I think.

Given his stats and the weird way the hand his played, the only think I can put him on is something with a 5 in it or 77 and he's just playing it like a spastic, but I could be and probably am wrong...