|
|
#1
09-05-2007, 01:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
TPGK- turn decision- fold or push ???
This is a hand from last night's Commerce Cali State Championship Tournament. It's $335 buy-in but the villain does play live $500+ tournaments all the time and we were as deep as $500 tourney when in the hand.
Villain is a reasonable player. Early in one hand, he limped utg and checked a set of 5 OOP on a rag flop against three players, he value bet the turn when the second spades came and checked down the river when the third spade came. My image is tight and aggressive. I only played fewer than 10 hands and won every showdown so far. This hand, I have 2700. He has similar stack. 50/100. I raise from MP to 350 with AQo against one limper, villain calls from BB, limper folds. Flop AJ6 two spades. He checks. I check. I didn't like the my check here, as I recall, I put him on AJ before the flop was dealt and that's prabably why I check behind. Turn 7 offsuit, he checks again. I bet 350 hoping to take it down or charge a draw, surprisely, he raises to 950. Hero? I think my choices are either push or fold. From his past plays, I really thought he had 77 or flopped two pair. Could he checked twice with big hands? On the other hand, given the fact, I didn't bet the flop with Ace and two spades, he may not put me on big Ace, therefore, he could think think a weak Ace is good, but still why he didnt value bet the turn? From his past showdowns and his seeing of my showdowns (I moved in on the turn against c/r once before), he's not likely to c/r with a draw against me. 
|
|
#3
09-05-2007, 04:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPGK- turn decision- fold or push ???
Yeah given the last hand I would expect a real hand to bet the turn. It also seems like he doesn't value bet that thin given the set check from last hand. So I'd say he's FOS and call, call. Don't shove, let him bluff off chips.
|
|
#5
09-05-2007, 04:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPGK- turn decision- fold or push ???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I put him on AJ before the flop was dealt and that's prabably why I check behind. [/ QUOTE ] lol [/ QUOTE ] I know it's funny. But,I've lost 10 or 11 times in 15 hands when I had 75%+ vs 25%- (AQ<KQ, AJ<KJ+KT allins,AA <TJ.....), it's hard not to think villains are always lucky than I am.
|
|
#6
09-05-2007, 04:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPGK- turn decision- fold or push ???
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah given the last hand I would expect a real hand to bet the turn. It also seems like he doesn't value bet that thin given the set check from last hand. So I'd say he's FOS and call, call. Don't shove, let him bluff off chips. [/ QUOTE ] agreed. I'd fold to this line vs. some people, but not this guy.
|
|
#7
09-05-2007, 05:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPGK- turn decision- fold or push ???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I put him on AJ before the flop was dealt and that's prabably why I check behind. [/ QUOTE ] lol [/ QUOTE ] I know it's funny. But,I've lost 10 or 11 times in 15 hands when I had 75%+ vs 25%- (AQ<KQ, AJ<KJ+KT allins,AA <TJ.....), it's hard not to think villains are always lucky than I am. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but you said you put him on one specific hand, preflop, based on him calling your raise from the BB. That's pretty hard to do, unless his brain waves are leaking and you pick them up and interpret them well, or something.
|
|
#8
09-05-2007, 06:05 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: TPGK- turn decision- fold or push ???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah given the last hand I would expect a real hand to bet the turn. It also seems like he doesn't value bet that thin given the set check from last hand. So I'd say he's FOS and call, call. Don't shove, let him bluff off chips. [/ QUOTE ] agreed. I'd fold to this line vs. some people, but not this guy. [/ QUOTE ] This is my original plan. I don't think he'd check twice and not valuebetting with strong hand. OK, let's say he's drawing spade or even with KsQs for combo draw. After the call of his raise, with 1400 left (pot 2700) don't we push here? calling is better than pushing? If he's on the draw, he may raise for a semibluff here or buy a free card and plan to fold to blank river.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
