Bubble Play - LAG image with 44 on the button against UTG 4.5BB raise

[Bakes]

god nywalker first you posted bad. then you kinda posted better. whats with this new rash of super retarded posts? is this gonna turn into something like "oh well if i push he knows i know he is so tight and will only call with KK+"?

My prediction for this hand: the blinds fold and UTG rolls his AK, commenting that he just wanted to take the blinds and he would have folded to a shove. It is the bubble, after all.

[NYWalker]

All,

This is one of the hands in the tournament that I think for a long time and I learned a lot from this hand. I'm going to spend sometime tell you how I think.


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First of all, I never thought about how likely my hand can beat his. I was thinking what he could have and how could make him fold. Next, if I get called, my 44 isn't bad behind two overs.

Second, I want him fold TT and minus. Give him a close decision if he has JJ. AA,KK,QQ? I'm still in the hunt even if I lose, but I have outs.

Third,

Let's do some more math:

1. Tight player - his raising range is tight, he has big hands; -1
2. Tight player - he can fold big hands if he thinks he's up against bigger hands; +1
3. 38 players left, 36 paid - no one wants to be out at 38; He can't lose this hand. +1
4. 38 players left, 36 paid - he has to play with all his chips with me in this hand (I'm the CL at the table). But he didn't realize that until I do what I'll do next. +1
5. His utg raise looks weak to me. AA,KK would raise less than that. only QQ, JJ may raise this size. It's very likely his pp is worse than QQ, his two overs worse than AKs. +1

4:1 favor to me.

With all these, I believe if we play carefully, he can fold most hands in his raising range.

Call is out of the picture. Shove only rep AK/AQ and may get called by JJ/TT/99.

Re-raise may get AQ fold most of the time; may get AK folded if he really doesn't want a coin-flip at the bubble.

=============================================

As played,
I actually re-raised to 16500. He folded AJs face up. I picked up his nicely stacked 11 blue (500) chips.


Give a tough decision to him, let him fold 90% of his raising hands. Don't think about my hand until we get called.


comments?


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PS. For those who really thought we should fold 44 here, question:

What hands you must have to re-raise this utg raiser in this spot?
<font color="white"> (your answer is the hand he put me on after he got re-raised) </font>

[betgo]

Do you think villain would have raised less than 4.5xBB with JJ-AA or AK?

[Rekwob]

super tight players dont raise AJs UTG on the bubble

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think villain would have raised less than 4.5xBB with JJ-AA or AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think villain would have raised less than 4.5xBB with AA,KK. QQ 5BB. AK/AQ 3-4BB. JJ and smaller pp 4.5BB.

The bottomline, what hands he must have to call my re-raise? What's the chance he does not have those hands?

[NYWalker]

[ QUOTE ]
super tight players dont raise AJs UTG on the bubble

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as he doesn't have AA,KK,QQ here, he folds. AK/JJ is close decision for him.

Put you into his shoes, you utg raise 5500 with AK,AQ,AJ,JJ,TT,99,88 (19000 behind), button re-raises to 16500. Button has you covered, what would you do?

[Rekwob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
super tight players dont raise AJs UTG on the bubble

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as he doesn't have AA,KK,QQ here, he folds. AK/JJ is close decision for him.

Put you into his shoes, you utg raise 5500 with AK,AQ,AJ,JJ,TT,99,88 (19000 behind), button re-raises to 16500. Button has you covered, what would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

my point is giving a read as someone as being super tight means to me that they're folding AJs utg on the bubble

i didnt say anything about your play, i like it if he is opening as wide as AJs. if hes what i deem to be super tight, i dont like it. however, this guy obviously wasnt super tight.