100NL Steal gone bad - tough turn decision

Cucumber · #1 08-27-2007, 10:54 AM

NL $1/$1 full ring game, I've been stealing aggressively a lot as a shortstack and generally being a LAG with some success. Villain is 17/4/infinity after 27 hands.

Hero is at the button with $38, Villain on SB with $102.

Folds to button, Hero raises to $2.50 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Villain calls, BB folds.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain checks, Hero bets $2.50, Villain calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villain checks, Hero bets $5.50, Villain almost insta raises to $27.50, Hero...?

ship_it_trebek · #2 08-27-2007, 11:01 AM

Are you shortstacking on purpose?

Cucumber · #3 08-27-2007, 11:18 AM

Yes, I'm underrolled for the level and trying to build an actual roll, so I had to adapt my play. My good hands earn less but I get less variance overall. Works for me so far after 11k hands - I may be wrong though. I can't play anything less than 100NL because the money in the pots doesn't matter enough to me, so my play deteriorates by a lot.

Cucumber · #4 08-27-2007, 11:20 AM

Also, my good hands get paid less, but get called more often, because a short stack gets less credit for a good hand on average.

threads13 · #5 08-27-2007, 11:28 AM

It's a genuinely tough decision. You probably are going to have to fold it because the only hands that you beat here are bluffs.

If he is doing this with a worse ace it has became a two pair hand. However, if he is this tight it is unlikely he is calling preflop with many worse aces. So, when he calls the flop you have to put him on hands like FD's and sets or a better ace. You probably aren't going to get value out of a worse hand with a turn bet unless it is a FD. This means that you probably should have checked the turn to induce a river bluff and get to showdown.

Cucumber · #6 08-27-2007, 11:38 AM

He's tight after 27 hands - so this isn't a good read really.

threads13 · #7 08-27-2007, 11:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He's tight after 27 hands - so this isn't a good read really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you have to go with it to SOME degree, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Besides, you should have a read on him after 27 hands.... now shouldn't you?! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyways, if he is somewhat normal his range contains more PP's than A's. I am not sure what you put him on when you bet the turn. If he is overvaluing his A's you would have figured that out by now and then you can bet the turn with confidence and the intention of getting AI(you also could have raised more preflop to make this more natural). Since you don't have this read you have to assume he doesn't have a lot A's in his range and that his range is as I stated(granted he may have made a loose flop call with a PP or something but he isn't likely to just call the turn with those hands). Also, since he is *probably* aggressive you will be stunned how much he bets the river. This will be a big mistake since you should call nearly all reasonable river bets when you check the turn.

Cucumber · #8 08-27-2007, 12:06 PM

I'm not putting him on anything really. I'm just trying to bet him out of the pot, HOPING he got a weaker ace that didn't make two pair or a flush draw.

Why would he make such a raise on the turn, when a blank (basicly) came? It looked like he wasn't sure of the strength of his hand to me really.

threads13 · #9 08-27-2007, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not putting him on anything really. I'm just trying to bet him out of the pot, HOPING he got a weaker ace that didn't make two pair or a flush draw.

Why would he make such a raise on the turn, when a blank (basicly) came? It looked like he wasn't sure of the strength of his hand to me really.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either he is screwing around and bluffing you or he has a set.

You should always put your opponents on a range (yeah yeah, do as I say not as I do [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). If you did that you would see that betting the turn is probably not great.

FireStorm · #10 08-27-2007, 12:35 PM

Can you explain "I'm just trying to bet him out of the pot, HOPING he got a weaker ace that didn't make two pair or a flush draw"? If your hope/betting line/read give you an idea that you have him outkicked, why would you want to bet him out of the pot? Want A9 to fold here?

As it is, I would probably fold, as your opponent probably does not have a one pair hand here. You would be stacking off when you can only beat a complete bluff, so fold. Unless Villain has specifically 6h4h, or 8hXh, he doesn't play a worse hand like this.