NCAA Bowl Thread

[JaredL]

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I might be misunderstanding some of you, but there is no coinflip for the second OT. Boise St was definitely going to be on offense first. The only toss is before the first OT so for extra OTs the positions switch. Since Boise was on defense first in OT1 they would be on offense first in OT2.

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You are misunderstanding or I wasn't clear.

The question that started this whole thing, was why did BSU kick in regulation but go for it in OT.

The only difference between the two (other than being more tired, maybe more nervous after seeing the first TD) is that in regulation a coin toss determines when you go, while in OT it was automatically going to be OU.

[El Diablo]

Jared,

"I'm actually curious now how big that edge is."

Excluding coinflips that decide tiebreakers and crap like that, does that make the college OT coinflip the highest impact coinflip in sports? Hmmmm, are there coinflips in sports other than football? Does anyone care about retarded questions like this?

WOWOWOOW WHAT A GAME

WOWOOWOWOW F CHRIS MYERS WHAT A RETARD FOR RUINING THE MOMENT OF THAT COUPLE'S RELATIONSHIP

[JaredL]

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WOWOOWOWOW F CHRIS MYERS WHAT A RETARD FOR RUINING THE MOMENT OF THAT COUPLE'S RELATIONSHIP

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Seriously I just watched it again and came to 2 conclusions:

1. That chick is hot, yo.
2. Chris Fowler really messed it up. The first viewing I didn't notice that the girl puts her hands to her face and starts crying before the guy gets on his knee.

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Excluding coinflips that decide tiebreakers and crap like that, does that make the college OT coinflip the highest impact coinflip in sports? Hmmmm, are there coinflips in sports other than football? Does anyone care about retarded questions like this?


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I'm interested. I'm going to get my hands on some data (trying to find a list of all OT games ever, may dig deeper and try to find all games where a team was in a 4 down situation which will be harder) and look into it.

It might not be as huge because there is the strong possibility that it goes TD-TD or FG-FG in which case the going last advantage flips. Then again, maybe going for 2 is always the better move if you go last and the other team scores a touchdown.

[Needle77]

I know this is a tad off-topic, but I hate the college bowl system. Starting at the 25 is terrible. Maybe if you started at the 40 it would be better. Sorry about being OT.

[Clarkmeister]

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Chrissy



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This is correct.

[tuq]

Clark,

I don't have anything to add to this thread - incredible game, I saw what mattered - but please post more. That is all.

[UATrewqaz]

I love the total ignorance and horrible fact checking of ESPN, on their frontpage link to the cotton bowl recap

"Auburn first SEC team to win Cotton Bowl in 4 years"

They are actually the fourth STRAIGHT SEC team to win the cotton bowl.

[JaredL]

All,

If anyone is interested, I just got done analyzing games from this year that went into OT. Including any OT rounds played in Division 1A games this season, I have 52 total overtime rounds played. This isn't a huge number, but it's a start.

There were 28 in which the first team scored a touchdown, 10 in which they kicked a field goal, and 14 where they failed to score. When they scored a touchdown, the second team scored a touchdown 20 of 28 times. When they scored a field goal, the team going second scored a touchdown 4 times (winning the game), scored a field goal 4 times, and failed to score twice. When the first team didn't score, the second team scored a touchdown 4 times, field goal 6 times, and nothing 4 times (these 4 were all in the same game unbelievably).

This is quick and dirty analysis as I'm lumping all OTs together. So I'm assuming that going last next round for example could affect your strategy this round. I think this is ok because coaches don't think these things through, even though it shouldn't be. I'm also ignoring the additional rule that says that starting in the 3rd OT you have to go for 2. I don't think this is a problem as all that matters in play calling is whether you need a TD or FG. I do, however, say that teams tie for the OT if both score a TD which isn't always the case (sometimes a team gets the 2 point conversion as in the game today, other times teams miss the extra point). Again, this shouldn't really matter as there is no reason to believe that going first or second should affect the chance of blowing a PAT, succeeding when going for 2, or attempting to go for 2 (it perhaps should affect this, but likely doesn't). An issue with this whole thing is that it assumes all teams have the same chance of scoring a TD/FG/nothing. This isn't realistic across games, but within each game it's probably ok unless one team is drastically better in the red zone but sucks at getting there relative to the other team. This problem will occur pretty much no matter how you look at such data.

So using the numbers above, the probability of the first team on offense winning is (IIRC from probability class):
P(winning in round 1) + P(tying round 1)P(winning in round 2) divided by that plus P(losing in round 1) + P(tying round 1)P(losing round 2). When calculated using the above, the first team wins with probability .475, the team on D wins with probability .525. If you buy my simplifying assumpions above, then this is better than just using the overall percentage of times the first team actually won because it allows me to use more data points.

So basically if you know you are going first next round you should go for 2 if you think you have better than a 47.5% chance to get it. If you get a TD to tie it, then in theory you are 50/50 to win overall so you should go for it if you are better than a coinflip to convert. The only way it really made sense in the game, if you don't think my stuff here is full of [censored], is if the BSU coach thought that they were between 47.5 and 50% to convert.

[lacky]

clearly my way biased favorite game of all time.

as for our coach getting tons of offers, thats been going on for about 6 weeks. all I can say is this guys a class act. he likes boise, his family likes boise. he just went from making $100k+ as offensive coardinator last season to $600k+ as head coach this season. In his mind, he makes plenty and told all callers thanks, but not interested.

boise state clearly want's to keep him, and had a meeting with him last month offering anything, including renagotiating his contract for more money, ANYTHING to keep him happy. All he asked for was a pay raise for his assistent coaches, and an early replacement of the turf that hasn't held up well. anything can change, but we are all hoping he decides boise is home and stays for the long haul.

[iggymcfly]

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boise state clearly want's to keep him, and had a meeting with him last month offering anything, including renagotiating his contract for more money, ANYTHING to keep him happy. All he asked for was a pay raise for his assistent coaches, and an early replacement of the turf that hasn't held up well.

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Wow, that's a super classy move. Almost unheard of to hear a coach turn down a pay raise in this day and age.