88 at flop A66 and donk bet

[JJack]

$1.00/$2.00

MP3 ($96.75) (Hero)
BB ($35.90) 18.2/13.6/infinity - 22 hands
UTG+2 ($62.30) 21.2/5/1.24 - 300 hands

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+2

calls,

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( 3.25BB )
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls,

Do you peel here?
This donk looks strange like monster or bluff.
I have plan to peel one at flop bet/fold turn and check behind river.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( 4.75BB )
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>

After 2nd bet at turn 3 way I give someone credit for better hand and pot is not big.

[Gib]

There's no point peeling the flop if ur going to fold that turn.

[knockonwood]

Good point. The turn hasn't changed anything.

[Gib]

oh FWIW I'd just fold flop &amp; move onto next hand. If he's got something like 22/air make a note of it. Also make sure u note what UTG+2 is calling with too (prolly a weak A or pp).

[Aaron W.]

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Good point. The turn hasn't changed anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

We now have a much stronger reason to believe that UTG+2 has a pair of somethings.

[OziBattler]

edit: Removed most of my post since I got my stat comments back to front. We dont ahve the luxury of a half decent sample size on BB like we think we did. Still, I think that we can let this one go on the flop.

Whats that guideline...when its close* and pot is small lean towards fold..when pot is big lean towards call/raise. Spewing 1-2 bets at a time in small pots is something that Im acutely aware of cos I do it too much when running bad and is a leak that will cost you a postive win rate.

*not that Im saying that this particular decision is a close decision

finally, what Aaron said...the fact that UTG+2 calls the flop must not be underestimated. in this case there are NO decent draws on the board. no flush draw no staight draw no nadda. Okay so sure there is a flushdraw on the turn but I think we can assume this 21/5 guy UTG doesnt have 35 or 45 for a gutty. He could have peels with KcJc but how likely is that for his range?

[knockonwood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good point. The turn hasn't changed anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

We now have a much stronger reason to believe that UTG+2 has a pair of somethings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant in relation to peeling the flop.

[neurotiq]

I just fold this guy on the flop. If he's hit any part of the board (which seems likely, given the donk), we're behind.

[ckj]

I fold flop, I'm not worried about BB here, I'm worried about UTG+2. I think he's doing this with air a good deal of the time, but UTG+2 calling means UTG+2 likely has something.

[MacGuyV]

Muck da flop.