(NLTRN) First hand vs Huge loser

[cwar]

Been busy last couple days but I thought Id stop by with a very interesting hand, converter is on the [censored] so Im doing it by hand. All I know about villain is he is -13% ROI over 200+ matches and is 'hot' (won 3+ matches in a row).

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB first hand of a 110 turbo I limp. BB checks.

Flop comes: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Check, Check.

Turn comes: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet 45, he calls.

River comes: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain leads 150, I raise to 400, Villain raises to 650.

Whats are your thoughts about raising the initial river lead and how do you decide whether to call or fold to the 3bet.

[dboy23]

im certainly not folding here.

river raise is good, because he probably pays off with lots of hands you beat. He can easily have a worse 2 pair here. So easy call.

[cwar]

Assuming villain is min 3betting two pairs that I beat 4:1 isnt an easy assumption IMO, possible but not easy.

[APXG]

Obviously you call the 3bet after raising, but the question is can you call a shove? I would never raise this 1st hand with high M's b.c. you can't raise-fold to a shove vs. a bad player profitably, and you can't raise-call(a shove) profitably b.c. of $EV discrepancies. A raise is fine if you have enough info that you can instafold to a 3bet - 1st hand you never have this info.

[cwar]

Thats a very different (and interesting) perspective APXG anyone else think this way? I think I was thinking this subconsciously which is why I thought it was an interesting hand.

[dboy23]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously you call the 3bet after raising, but the question is can you call a shove? I would never raise this 1st hand with high M's b.c. you can't raise-fold to a shove vs. a bad player profitably, and you can't raise-call(a shove) profitably b.c. of $EV discrepancies. A raise is fine if you have enough info that you can instafold to a 3bet - 1st hand you never have this info.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you elaborate on what you mean by $EV discrepancies?

[Nichomacheo]

Are you in the SB or is he? Because if you are, you should have acted second on the turn. I'm gonna assume he checked and you bet the turn.

If Villian has an ace, he's going to start raising it on the turn. He's not going to do pot control in such a small pot. It's unlikely that he is behind, so he will probably raise you with an ace. Because he didnt, I will assume he doesnt have a higher two pair for the rest of the hand.

I will also assume that if he has a set he would raise you on the turn because of all the draws that are there. He might be bad, but even bad players start to build the pot and make draws pay.

When he calls on the turn, there are a lot of draws. The only hands that really beat you are 48/89 which means that he would have to be drawing to an inside straight draw on a two flush board on the turn. It doesn't make much sense. The other hand, which I think is likely, is 34, which has a double belly buster.

So, what else does he call with? Weak pairs drawing to two pair and flush draws. Both of which you beat. I think with a flush draw he would push the river if he was going to bluff at all so in all liklihood, I see this being a weaker two pair like 56/67.

That, or 34, and I lean towards 34.

/\/

[cwar]

EDIT: Turn should be villain checks, I bet, he calls.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously you call the 3bet after raising, but the question is can you call a shove? I would never raise this 1st hand with high M's b.c. you can't raise-fold to a shove vs. a bad player profitably, and you can't raise-call(a shove) profitably b.c. of $EV discrepancies. A raise is fine if you have enough info that you can instafold to a 3bet - 1st hand you never have this info.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you elaborate on what you mean by $EV discrepancies?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think what APXG is trying to get at is that a raise is probably profitable but the fact that facing a shove is an extremely tough decision thus making a mistake likely added into the fact that we know villain is very bad and will most likely make clear mistakes in the future make a raise less profitable than a call.

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
Been busy last couple days but I thought Id stop by with a very interesting hand, converter is on the [censored] so Im doing it by hand. All I know about villain is he is -13% ROI over 200+ matches and is 'hot' (won 3+ matches in a row).

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB first hand of a 110 turbo I limp. BB checks.

Flop comes: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Check, Check.

Turn comes: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet 45, he calls.

River comes: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain leads 150, I raise to 400, Villain raises to 650.

Whats are your thoughts about raising the initial river lead and how do you decide whether to call or fold to the 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do like raising the river lead. He usually has two pair here, but the likelihood of aces up is remote (you would have heard from him on the flop or turn) and you beat any other two pair hand. I'd actually consider shoving over his minraise, odd as that may sound, because it just smells weak to me. If he hit a straight he'd probably jam, right? I think in a whole lot of cases you jam, he calls and shows 76 or 75. But calling is an option too. I definitely do not fold.

It is also possible that he has nothing and has decided to play chicken with you, something a lot of bad HU players tend to do in my experience.