NL 200, flopped set; River play?

AlphaGun · #1 11-08-2006, 12:15 AM

I have a very aggressive image at this table. In addition, villain has already called pot-sized bets on the flop and turn with A high with a bad kicker and in general seems like a callbox. However, villain has been doing quite well at the table. I am pretty sure he has just been getting lucky but I don't have a ton of NL experience to say for sure.

Here is the hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($550.45)
BB ($69.67)
UTG ($592.91)
Button ($186.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises to $9, BB calls $8, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($30) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $28.5, BB folds, UTG calls $28.50.

Turn: ($87) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $85, UTG calls $85.

River: ($257) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

I believe villain will call a large bet here with a good range of hands, including two-pair and lower sets. What is my play?

rebuyboy · #2 11-08-2006, 12:20 AM

crai

AlphaGun · #3 11-08-2006, 12:27 AM

If villain has been pretty passive but not afraid to call big bets is there still an advantage to the c/r? I don't see a huge advantage to the c/r but perhaps I did not properly describe my opponent or perhaps I am missing something. I am very new to NL ring games so I may be missing something.

carnivalhobo · #4 11-08-2006, 12:29 AM

just shove

edit: realized thats a pretty big overbet, id probably just pot it.

Mr_Donktastic · #5 11-08-2006, 12:37 AM

I wouldn't get fancy with a c/r ai here.

Bet the pot or even push if you think there is any decent chance he'd call.

AlphaGun · #6 11-08-2006, 10:58 PM

I pushed. He called. He rivered the nuts and I lost. I was berated by someone on another forum about my river play here. It shows how much posting the results does to sway peoples opinions. I am glad to here that my play was not that unreasonable.

No matter how I played it, we were both getting all-in so given our cards my play did not matter.

hanning · #7 11-08-2006, 11:34 PM

Food for thought, curious what you think. Please keep in mind I am writing this knowing the outcome - so this is more of a theoretical response.

I read this thread and it maid me think of some implied odds thoughts I have had in an attempt to improve my early/mid level tournament play, but I think it is applicable here to cash play also. Specifically, I was thinking about why my tight early/mid play in a tournament wasn't getting very good results and also about how players I considered overly (ok stupidly) aggressive in the early/mid levels of a tournament were having fairly good success. I think the answer is implied odds and stacking opponents - a concept that I am begining to believe more and more is very important in cash games.

Lets assume that somehow you knew that villain had Q9 offsuit. On the turn villain is about 18% to get a straight. Your turn bet of essentially the pot gives villain immediate odds of 2:1 - but the implied odds villain is getting are 6:1 - so he was right to call on the turn.

If any mistake was made in this hand I would say that it was on the turn and that a bigger bet was needed. If I did the math right - the correct theoretical bet on the turn needed to be around 150.

Just curious as to what others think about this.

pyedog · #8 11-08-2006, 11:51 PM

A sick part of me wants to just push this river because I've had calling stations make those calls of river overbets thinking that you're bluffing. But your stack is still pretty huge so maybe betting about $150 on the river is best.

keikiwai · #9 11-09-2006, 12:00 AM

pushing is bad when an oesd hit and you are deep enough for calling the flop and turn to be reasonable for villain

i really don't like a check call, but i may go for that

or possibly a river block where i call a minraise

normal stack sizes would dictate an easy push probably on turn... the stack sizes make this river tough