LA Dodgers @ Colorado 4/18

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Play: LA Dodgers -107 (5dimes)

Dodgers (10-4) have won 6 of their last 7. Dodgers are 6-2 on the road. Colorado (6-8) has lost 5 of their last 7. Colorado managed to pull out a win last night over a 4-7 Giants team with 5 in the bottom of the 8th. LA won last night at AZ.

Dodgers pitch Lowe. Lowe is one of the best groundball pitchers in MLB, which plays well at Coors. He is 2-1 this year with his worst outing being his first where he gave up 6ER to Mil on the road. Second start he gave up 1ER in 7 innings to SF and in his third start he gave up 1ER to STL in 8 innings. Looks like the 1st start was somewhat out of line to his pitching history. He looks to be pitching pretty well as of late. The Giants should have beaten Col last night and the Dodgers are a much better team than SF, although the line doesn't show the degree of difference. The Dodger pen threw Saito and Broxton last night so they may be a little weary, however Colorado threw Fuentes BOTH Monday AND last night, so he may be more of a risk.

Colorado throwns Rodrigo Lopez. Dodgers beat him 2-1 in LA on 4/10, so they have already got a good look at him. LA should be ready for him this time. Lopez has looked decent in his first two starts, but I'm not convinced that he is anything other than his 5.00 lifetime ERA stat. Also, in his first two starts of the season he only threw 76 and 68 pitches, with 48 and 43 for strikes respectively. If the Dodgers get to him early, the Colorado pen is suspect, especially with their closer Fuentes having pitched the last two nights and Ramirez going two out of the last three nights.

I'd say the Dodgers have about a 60% chance of taking this one (which would equal a line of about -150), which is way better than the -107 on the board. They should at least have enough winning percentage to cover the 52% winning chance that the -107 implies.

Good luck.

Edit: Line on the 4/10 game was Tomko -127, Lopez +117. Given that Lowe is way better than Tomko, and COL is getting about 20cents for Home Field you can see how far off the line is.