GPSTS conference 11/10/07 at Harvard Law School: My Thesis

[waarior]

I think there is a general unwillingness to accept such a conclusion because it runs contrary to the American ideal. If you work hard --> success will follow. The ethos doesn't really allow for someone to work hard and fail, even if it was just bad luck.

There is obviously a spectrum of luck----skill with poker falling somewhere in the middle. Clearly more towards the luck limit than skill in the short term.

I think the most interesting comparison would be to sports. One of the reasons I believe they are so popular is the belief that the winner "deserves" to win through their hard work, preparation etc. Luck is grudgingly acknowledged sometimes but its contributions discounted.

On one hand, you have poker where most view it as predominately luck and on the other, sports where it is primarily viewed as completely skill based. Interestingly the more games ones plays in both activities the less luck involved. But that is no consolation for the team that suffers from the bad call, or the hand of god in the final.

Definitely an interesting topic though.

[0524432]

Thats the point, where is the line that is crossed that makes a suckout in poker more or less "lucky" than one of the MANY uncontrollable events that occur in sports? Which I am not even going to begin to list ffs....

What it is that makes, for example, Brian or Taylor's preparation to play the HSNL games with the best of the best any less respectable than the preparation that an NFL team takes in the film room?

[Phreak]

this may sound retarded to you but heres my shot.

could u maybe give an x for the "long run luck factor". x=x for everyone yadda yadda thats fine in the infinately long run

i think when people say zomg long run 1.4million hands fgators sucks lolz, and that whatever happens in the "long run" must be all skill is not entirely accurate. i dont think the long run of poker can rightfully be obtained.

if someone goes on for a sick heater that lasts 10k hands, can u honestly tell me that the "luck" will even out over 1.4 million hands...i do not buy into that

p.s. im not fgators

[budblown]

[ QUOTE ]
this may sound retarded to you but heres my shot.

could u maybe give an x for the "long run luck factor". x=x for everyone yadda yadda thats fine in the infinately long run

i think when people say zomg long run 1.4million hands fgators sucks lolz, and that whatever happens in the "long run" must be all skill is not entirely accurate. i dont think the long run of poker can rightfully be obtained.

if someone goes on for a sick heater that lasts 10k hands, can u honestly tell me that the "luck" will even out over 1.4 million hands...i do not buy into that

p.s. im not fgators

[/ QUOTE ]

nice random fgators reference

[felixleong]

[ QUOTE ]
this may sound retarded to you but heres my shot.

could u maybe give an x for the "long run luck factor". x=x for everyone yadda yadda thats fine in the infinately long run

i think when people say zomg long run 1.4million hands fgators sucks lolz, and that whatever happens in the "long run" must be all skill is not entirely accurate. i dont think the long run of poker can rightfully be obtained.

if someone goes on for a sick heater that lasts 10k hands, can u honestly tell me that the "luck" will even out over 1.4 million hands...i do not buy into that

p.s. im not fgators

[/ QUOTE ]

in the infinite run , luck breaks even

but in reality there is no infinite but over a very long run
it should be near even

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
this may sound retarded to you but heres my shot.

could u maybe give an x for the "long run luck factor". x=x for everyone yadda yadda thats fine in the infinately long run

i think when people say zomg long run 1.4million hands fgators sucks lolz, and that whatever happens in the "long run" must be all skill is not entirely accurate. i dont think the long run of poker can rightfully be obtained.

if someone goes on for a sick heater that lasts 10k hands, can u honestly tell me that the "luck" will even out over 1.4 million hands...i do not buy into that

p.s. im not fgators

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, in one way I agree with you, but you are leaving half of the equation out....

Consider a 7 days week. You are the example, each day of the week, you have a rating of luck from -10 to +10. These are just random #s but I'm doing this for a reason. M-1 T+7 W-9 Th+10 F+6 S-2 Su+7. Just like in poker, some days in life you have more bad luck than good luck (as it pertains to your goals) and vice versa.

The idea behind looking at the affect of luck in the long run and short term is this. In the short term, the "spread" of that weeks lucky that I offered to you is highly impacted by the luck of each day. Over the course of say, 52 weeks however, the luck of each day affects the overall outcome very little. Also, if you were to look at the course of a lifetime, each one of the whole 7 day weeks would make very little independent impact on the overall outcome. Considering that over infinity, each players "luck" factor is exactly even (please point out this sentence with evidence otherwise if you disagree), you have to recognize that both bad AND good luck occur with the same frequency.

That being said.....we don't play over the course of infinity. We play within a certain time restraint. That means, that you are correct, there is undoubtedly, at the end of 2 separate poker players lives, going to be a difference in the outcome due to luck.

The point here is, while it is difficult if not impossible to determine a set determinant between the "short" term and the "long" term, the factor that luck has on poker (and IMO life) decreases as time goes on and becomes closer to neutral.

Skill however, reacts much differently than luck, over time.

Nice post btw, good to see some through process in NVG.

[Phreak]

[ QUOTE ]


The idea behind looking at the affect of luck in the long run and short term is this. In the short term, the "spread" of that weeks lucky that I offered to you is highly impacted by the luck of each day. Over the course of say, 52 weeks however, the luck of each day affects the overall outcome very little. Also, if you were to look at the course of a lifetime, each one of the whole 7 day weeks would make very little independent impact on the overall outcome. Considering that over infinity, each players "luck" factor is exactly even (please point out this sentence with evidence otherwise if you disagree), you have to recognize that both bad AND good luck occur with the same frequency.


[/ QUOTE ]

i do agree 100% about one bad week will not be recognizable through infinity, however i do dispute that any poker player has played enough to reasonably compare with infinity.