$114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.

[Iq75]

I'm not shoving the river here. I would need to get him fold more than half of the time (he is not calling with anything that we beat). It sure looks like villain has QQ/JJ and he is folding those to a river shove most of the time. But his range includes a lot of other hands too (sometimes some very strangely played hands like KQo/33 ... too) + he is calling with QQ/JJ here sometimes too.

But the number one reason for not shoving here is that i like to avoid early on situations that are highly speculative to be +EV.

[Crosby]

Although I don't think it's hard to imagine him value betting JJ or QQ here, I'm not sure how to weigh that likelihood compared to him checking AK/set. I think JJ or QQ is a good bet, and you have your read, but many people would miss it. I would prefer to bet a set or AK, but many people wouldn't necessarily. A set might figure they'll lose you here, and AK might fear losing value/want to control the pot fearing your flop call. An important factor to me is what his preflop range is in the first place. You say he's between standard tag and lag, could he show up with AQ/AJ/66 type hands that he's bluffing with? I would just be folding these types of hands UTG, but if he can have them it complicates matters significantly.

[Pudge714]

To everyone you realize the difference between QQ and AK is based on me having like K9s or floating AK.

[citanul]

people,

can anyone posting anything about this hand at minimum produce 2 pieces of information?

1) what you thing opp has
2) what you think opp thinks hero has

thanks,

c

[suzzer99]

1) KK, maybe JJ or QQ, lesser chance of set on flop or AK

2) If villian is a 2p2 clone - TT/JJ or weirdly played AK or monster.

If villian is just a standard regular then I rarely try to assume that he'll put us on a tight range preflop (no suited connectors, suited aces, etc.) Or that he'll assume we won't slowplay a set, etc. When you take away that info. he really doesn't have much clue what we have. Which makes it hard for me to see him putting pudge on TT or JJ and value-betting JJ or QQ here. But I guess in that case he could just be betting because he thinks he's good, and he's not thinking about what pudge might actually call with.

[Hercules]

Pudge, your line doesnt make any sense for having a monster. Obv its easy to say since i know ur hand.

I think i only played very few hands in my life with you, so i dont know ur game at all. But i assume ur playing a somewhat standart early sng-game.

- Your calling range on that flop is pretty much 88-QQ. I dunno how u play sets, but i think you would have at least bet the turn, if u have chosen to sloplay on the flop.
(Even if u slowplay AA\KK pre, u pretty much pop it up on the flop prolly)

-I dont think u call pre with 22\33 and u most likely rr with kings. So, i dunno, but you simply have to be FOS on that river. Maybe u show up a small % with a tricky played 88\99, but if Villain is thinking he snaps with JJ-AA\AK, cuz they are basically the same hands in this spot and u are either FOS or have a set. And since u have the set only a low %,...Obv his range is more weighted towards JJ-QQ, but that doesnt really matter.

[citanul]

wow, i don't really get those ranges at all. perhaps i suck.

preflop, i put the guy on like: any two face cards any pair 77+
flop, i think he bets all of those hands much of the time
turn i think many people check all of those hands all of the time. maybe they bet AA or something sometime. but i think that people who hit the K here checkraise too much, and people who didn't hit the K here check a lot too.
river, i narrow his range. i think he has some part of the board now. i think that he has a king, and it's weighted towards his worst kings because although many people check almost everything on the turn, kings bet most frequently. he could have a hand like JT too, but i think he probably bets less with JT if he bets, and if he has any other bluff type hand like AJ AQ he bluffs with less too.

i think that most people assume that pudge has some big cards or a pair preflop
on the flop they put him on any pair, or a small likelihood of a float
on the turn i think they assume he doesn't have a king in his hand

so on the river i think the guy is bluffing rarely, and thinks he has the best hand a lot. i think that almost no one folds a king here ever. i think that QQ JJ have a hard time folding to the action as played, as does TT.

my guess on this hand is that the guy had Kx or a wackilly played set (lol), pudge got ownd, and that he has moved to cashaments for like 24 hours, tops.

[Crosby]

1) I think opponent, if he opens something like 88+AQs+ utg, has 88-QQ/AK or perhaps a bluff with exactly AQs if he cont. bet it. Everything else in his range is value betting, what he would fold is not completely clear, but I wouldn't bet on him folding much of it. Since OP mentioned that he is between tag and lag, I'm curious (and asked) if more hands like AJ, 66, JTs might be in his range. I normally rely on stats for information like this. If these hands are in his range, perhaps he is bluffing with some of them, and the river decision seems more interesting to me.

2) Assuming hero is standard, I would expect him to have exactly 88-QQ generally, basically never AK, occasionally 66-77, occasionally KK/AA. The less standard the opponent plays, the less I would rely upon his thought process and the more basic I would play.

Any pointers regarding my thought process would be appreciated.

[Crosby]

Good point, I for one realize this. I was hoping to point out that since I think he can have AK, this increases the # of hands he can have of the same medium strength. Since I think he can have a set, that adds more hands that aren't folding. As an aside I do think people are more likely to call AK than QQ even though it doesn't really make any sense. I wouldn't make the play expecting him to fold either of these hands.