Hiding a Recession

[Borodog]

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I don't get it. If they're fudging the data why doesn't someone go and buy a basket of goodies and compare it to last year?

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Someone has. Perhaps you missed the graphs.

[lehighguy]

But Boro, computers are twice as fast as last year. Doesn't that mean prices declined 50%.

[Borodog]

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But Boro, computers are twice as fast as last year. Doesn't that mean prices declined 50%.

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Ahahaha hedonic adjustment is a crock of [censored].

[The once and future king]

Hmm an alternative to the hiding hypothesis is that there has been massive inflation shown by reliable metrics.

Look at the housing market for example. This has inflated alot in the USA (till recently). Not saying that CPI isnt fudged to a high degree, just that it isnt a case of omfg where is all the new money going why aint it showing up on the radar. It went into assets etc of which housing would be a prime example,that definitely showed up on the radar.

[Misfire]

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The Jr. Bacon Cheeseburger is still 99 cents,

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But the weight and quality of the ingredients has probably declined.

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I had one the other day and it was aboslutely delicious. The quality of service sucked, which I think is a pretty strong indicator of economic conditions. Low-wage employees take their jobs more seriously when they are in fear of not being able to find another.

Re: low dollar vs yak turds - Falling dollar against foreign currency isn't all bad. American exporters should be having a heyday.

[lehighguy]

And educational expenses, and medical expenses, and military expenses.

Let's not forget that the Chinese buy a lot of our inflation.

[Borodog]

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Hmm an alternative to the hiding hypothesis is that there has been massive inflation shown by reliable metrics.

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Oh, yes. I agree 100%. It's just that the inflation is showing up everywhere EXCEPT the CPI. I'm not saying that it is ONLY manipulation of economic data that is hiding monetary expansion.

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Look at the housing market for example. This has inflated alot in the USA (till recently). Not saying that CPI isnt fudged to a high degree, just that it isnt a case of omfg where is all the new money going why aint it showing up on the radar. It went into assets etc of which housing would be a prime example,that definitely showed up on the radar.

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Of course. This is what I've been saying all along. But that is, in fact, "hidden" from consumers, who are mainly interested in consumer prices. In fact, they think that a bubble in their stock portfolio or the value of their home is a good thing, at least until the bubble bursts.

Price inflation is also offset by productivity increases in certain sectors (see for example consumer electronics), and monetary inflation is also hidden offshore as foreign held dollar reserves, which also reduces pressure on the CPI, at least until that bubble bursts, which is now occuring.

[Borodog]

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Re: low dollar vs yak turds - Falling dollar against foreign currency isn't all bad. American exporters should be having a heyday.

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Sure. But what about American consumers who now have to compete with those foreigners buying up American goods? They are getting crunched with higher domestic prices.

[adios]

Post some numbers please. I think I follow your argument but we should at least see the numbers you're working with to come to those conclusions.

National Economic Accounts

[RR]

Since these graphs are out there I am pretty sure there would be some articles written about this. I am packing for a move, so I don't really have the time to do any actual research into what is going on.