re-raise fold? - Page 2

Tha Stunna · #11 06-23-2007, 03:12 AM

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One more thing -- Seat Four is short stacked, and it looks like he's trying to get it all it. Since this removes the possibility that I can get value for a raise if I fill, would you be more or less inclined to give him the action he desires?

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Hm, I didn't even notice that. Folding is terrible if there is a half decent chance that villain is trying to go all in with just a pair of jacks or aces. The sort of careful logic people have been using only works if the other player is playing weak-tight, and a short stacked player can't be trusted like that.

I guess I could have just agreed with Andy B and saved myself some typing.

electrical · #12 06-23-2007, 04:13 AM

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Also, you're risking $16 to win about $100...

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Come again? After the cap he's got 2 more BB in his stack. This isn't some tournament-style 1BB 3rd-street coinflip. I'm going to have to wager $30 more to get him all-in, and I can't win any more from him than that.

I think Mike Caro has a quotation that summarized my thinking on this hand: "Try to discern what your opponent wants you to do, and then disappoint him." Villain has enough of a hand that he wants me to get him all-in against what he ought to believe is trip Fives. I sought to disappoint him because the upside was so meager.

CarlosChadha · #13 06-23-2007, 04:25 AM

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Some things I didn't mention regarding third street might help with the discussion. Look at the exposed cards, and it should be obvious why I didn't raise on Third.

My front is weak, there was already a completion and a call from two Broadway cards, and the little cards yet to act are dead to the extent that they are only going to play (raise or no) if they have hidden pairs or draws -- hands they might very well call two bets with.

The original aggressor and the Queen were probably going to just call, as there had been very little three-betting on third in this game. If the Queen had been in Seat Four and the Jack in seat Six, it would be more likely he would re-raise to kick out the Jack, and then a raise would make more sense.

As the cards lay, I felt that a raise was not likely to fold anybody who wasn't going to fold anyway, and I didn't want to make a huge pot with one pair, when I would certainly get an opportunity to raise (to better effect) on Four.

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You have a well thought out reason for making your 3rd street call. One huge point that you did not include was that reraising gives your hand away, and makes the rest of the hand much easier for your opponents to play. This effect is compounded by the fact that you have a tight, winning image. However, if the king was your up card a raise would usually be correct because you have live cards and a powerful front.

CarlosChadha · #14 06-23-2007, 04:30 AM

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One more thing -- Seat Four is short stacked, and it looks like he's trying to get it all it. Since this removes the possibility that I can get value for a raise if I fill, would you be more or less inclined to give him the action he desires?

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Hm, I didn't even notice that. Folding is terrible if there is a half decent chance that villain is trying to go all in with just a pair of jacks or aces. The sort of careful logic people have been using only works if the other player is playing weak-tight, and a short stacked player can't be trusted like that.

I guess I could have just agreed with Andy B and saved myself some typing.

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If he is short stacked because he bought in for a small amount, it is more likely that he is playing on somewhat scared money and will be more passive without trips, making me more inclined to fold 4th. 4th street turns from a fold to a call is if the guy is on TILT, maybe because he has lost the last several hands (which may explain his short stack).

Carlos

CarlosChadha · #15 06-23-2007, 04:53 AM

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Against trips I am about 15 percent to win.
Against Aces-up, I am about 20 percent to win.

Neither of these are justified by the effective odds of a call-down. He would need to have a worse hand at least half the time for me to call down profitably. Anybody think that's going to be the case?

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Actually, with the dead cards you are 17.5% to win if he has 3 aces, and 24.7% to win if he has As up. The pot will be $115.5 ($112.5 with a $3 rake) after he goes all in, and it will cost you $31 more to see the showdown. So you will be putting in 22% of the final pot. So actually, given his specific stack size you should call (if he had enough to make a full river bet, you would be putting in 25% of the final pot, and would be more inclined to fold).

Carlos

CarlosChadha · #16 06-23-2007, 05:08 AM

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I initially thought villain's raise could have been an attempt to buy a free card or two with a big pair+draw

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This is a poor thought to have about someone who you characterized as "a pretty predictable, straightforward player, though not an ignorant one."

Since he is short stacked you put yourself into a very awkward position by three betting 4th. Even if he is "buying a free card" with 3 clubs and aces, given the dead cards, you only have 50.5% equity in the pot!!! Thus, you should just call his 1st raise on 4th, and then check to him no matter what on 5th. If he checks behind you, then great, you know you are ahead and you can bet 6th. If he bets 5th, 6th, and 7th without having caught another club, you can assume that he has As up or better and fold unimproved. If he catches 1 more club, but not 2 more, I would have to call him down because he is more likely to keep semi-bluffing on all streets vs your possible two pair or trips if he picks a four flush as well.

Carlos

RainierBob · #17 06-23-2007, 07:19 AM

I'm over my head here but will add my 2 cents anyway.

Since you did not raise third, he may be putting you on a 3 flush plus 5's. Since the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is out, you cld even have a 3 flush/3 straight. That wld make it more urgent for him to raise you off your hand than if he put you on trips or 2 pair.

Also, you say you've shown down good hands, but what has he seen as regards your reaction to aggressive betting? If he's seen you fold other hands to aggressive betting he might think it likely to work here and so be more inclined to do so with weaker holdings.

electrical · #18 06-23-2007, 01:05 PM

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Since he is short stacked you put yourself into a very awkward position by three betting 4th. Even if he is "buying a free card" with 3 clubs and aces, given the dead cards, you only have 50.5% equity in the pot!!! Thus, you should just call his 1st raise on 4th, and then check to him no matter what on 5th. If he checks behind you, then great, you know you are ahead and you can bet 6th. If he bets 5th, 6th, and 7th without having caught another club, you can assume that he has As up or better and fold unimproved. If he catches 1 more club, but not 2 more, I would have to call him down because he is more likely to keep semi-bluffing on all streets vs your possible two pair or trips if he picks a four flush as well.

Carlos

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Man, you're good.

Thanks for taking the time to discuss this hand. I've been schooled.

[edit]: I think I'd call the last dollar on the river rather than fold UI if it got that far, getting better than 100:1. I mean, I'm a nit and everything, but jeez...

CarlosChadha · #19 06-24-2007, 05:11 PM

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Since he is short stacked you put yourself into a very awkward position by three betting 4th. Even if he is "buying a free card" with 3 clubs and aces, given the dead cards, you only have 50.5% equity in the pot!!! Thus, you should just call his 1st raise on 4th, and then check to him no matter what on 5th. If he checks behind you, then great, you know you are ahead and you can bet 6th. If he bets 5th, 6th, and 7th without having caught another club, you can assume that he has As up or better and fold unimproved. If he catches 1 more club, but not 2 more, I would have to call him down because he is more likely to keep semi-bluffing on all streets vs your possible two pair or trips if he picks a four flush as well.

Carlos

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Man, you're good.

Thanks for taking the time to discuss this hand. I've been schooled.

[edit]: I think I'd call the last dollar on the river rather than fold UI if it got that far, getting better than 100:1. I mean, I'm a nit and everything, but jeez...

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No problem, it was an interesting hand and I learned from it myself. Yes, he he only has a dollar left, call on the river:-)...but if he started with $66.5, he will have spent .5 on ante, 5 on 3rd, 20 on 4th (remember, you are jsut calling his raise), 10 on 5th, and 10 on 6th, which leaves a whopping $21 left on the river. Incidentally, that is just enough to call you raise, should you fill up, and luckily not enough to 3 bet you should he make a higher full house!

Carlos

SweetLuckyMe · #20 06-27-2007, 07:38 AM

I wouldn't put you on trips on 4th. What kind of fool flat calls a jack's raise with a pair of fives on 3rd? A 3 flush with overcard(s) strikes me as significantly more likely. Incidentally, what's with the flat call on 3rd with the overpair? Did the raiser show that he could get significantly out of line, and you want to trap? I'd very much want to ensure it wasn't a 3 or 4 handed pot via. a 3rd reraise.