Got him in the middle

[Poker CPA]

What is seat 4 thinking on 6th? Either he is way behind or just in front. He's checking the river and is in perfect position to do so. Since its a big pot, he will bet $6 to prevent the free cards and maybe get a fold. He is getting value here with his $6, and it is well worth the benefits. A solid stud player makes this value bet 100% of the time. Why save it for a crying 7th street call, when he knows he's dead. Hero should allow this to happen and then force him to make a mistake, calling the CR and then the river bet. Force your opponents to make mistakes and YOU WIN.

[Sevenfold]

Here is the problem in a nutshell---

Your theory involves picking up the lost bets on 5th, on 6th street via a check-raise.

You've given seat 4 a lot of credit as a thinking player. I don't necessarily disagree.

Here is your statement---

You mean to tell me that HERO would Cap 4th with wired 8s or 3s, to the hands that have Kings. NO WAY and seat 8, a solid player, knows this. Seat 4 is making seat 8 pay, and he’s more than happy to split the profits with HERO. THINKING SET, Now that’s hilarious. What the “case” 6s.

Actually I was thinking 8s.

Do you think seat 4 has narrowed our range when we twice raised open Kings to Aces or better? I assume yes.

(If no, what do you think he's putting us on?)

So if we hit an ace, you never think he is checking behind?

What if we hit an open pair? Never checking behind?


THE MATH BROKEN DOWN TO THE MOST BASIC POINT

You save a bet half the time, I pick up 2 bets the 25% of the time we hit the river. Thats a wash.

Here is what is basically comes down to---the check raise has to work over 50% of the time to make your line more profitable than mine (50% basically being even).

From this point on, the math is done. If we improve, how often is seat 4 betting? You think every time or close to it, I think much less than 50%.

So---here it is----
And CPA, I'm not giving you a hard time, but think about this for me and answer the two following questions:

1) What range of hands is seat 4 putting us on?

2) Given your answer to question one, what does he then do when we improve?



And here is a final thought----if you don't think a 5th street raise will slow him down, why not pop it on 5th and check raise 6th anyway? (not that I think this would work or be the correct line).




(Please dear god let this thread be over soon). [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Merton0806]

...so everyone agrees that we are jamming fifth?

[Poker CPA]

The key to the hand is "What kind of player is Seat 4?"

"So if we hit an ace, you never think he is checking behind?"
A.)NEVER, has value (no free cards and maybe a fold) and he will always check 7th, he has perfect position. Simple value bet.

What if we hit an open pair? Never checking behind?

B.)ALWAYS Checking

1) What range of hands is seat 4 putting us on?
C.)A draw

2)2) Given your answer to question one, what does he then do when we improve?
D.)Check

And here is a final thought----if you don't think a 5th street raise will slow him down, why not pop it on 5th and check raise 6th anyway? (not that I think this would work or be the correct line).

E.)Because I'm behind and need a card. I can't fold because of the pot size. For one big bet, maybe none, I see the river. So over 100 hands my average cost is about $5, maybe less, for a $90 pot. I do not like seat 4s betting pattern here. If I knew nothing about this player and this was his first hand, my conclusion would be "This guy is not just a fish but a WHALE". Yet to E, he is a solid player, "who got value for his hands". Thats why I ask E about the term "DECENT". An average losing stud player may call $12 on 4th, but he made it $18 with a DEAD HAND. This hand is a very EZ fold on 4th, after a call by E, and E raised. And then raised again on 5th. WTF!!! A player with a dead hand, building a pot that he can't get away from. ONLY REALLY STUPID PLAYERS DO THIS!!!!! You have to give him credit for 55 here if E is correct with his assessment. When someone pairs his doorcard and gets serious action, you need to be careful. Lets catch a card first and keep our cost low.

Now I think I have answered all your questions, If not, I'm sorry. Ask again.

PLEASE answer my questions. Your math, so we can see the effect over 100 hands. If not fine, but at least tell everyone what qualifies as a "BIG MISTAKE", dollarwise or as a percentage of the pot?

And most of all, please answer this question from a previous post:

And the MILLION $ Question 7, is it a BIG mistake considering your following statement:

"In my responses I had lots of time to look things over and run different scenarios, Elec only had a few seconds."

[Poker CPA]

...so everyone agrees that we are jamming fifth?

How about this M

"Is it a big mistake not to jam"

I love to know Poor Lawyer's thoughts, always good solid reasoning. Now this guy is a solid player. Seat 4?????????

[Merton0806]

if one has kings up and the other has kings it is a massive mistake not to jam. just cause we dont have best hand atm doesnt mean we suddenly have to go into check/call mode and wait and see if we make two pair. in limit poker you have to take full advantage of these situations.

by not jamming we are forgoing bets. we make the most money by getting more and more bets into the pot when we have equity advantage. (well we usually would make more money if they folded but thats not going to happen alot in limit poker).

in NLHE you can make small mistakes but aslong as you get the big decision correct, you still make money. but in limit poker, you must get lots and lots of these smaller decisions right.

what is your reason for not jamming fifth?

[Poker CPA]

M, we don't know exactly what he has, thus the need for headreading skills.

You need to focus on Seat 4's hand. What does he have? It’s either the case 55s or K5; AA is very, very unlikely. With 55, his EV is about 75% in three way action, no matter what seat 8 has. This EV would account for his betting pattern on 3rd, 4th and 5th. According to “E” he’s a solid a player, “who gets value for his hands”, so his betting pattern makes perfect sense. With K5, it’s completely different. If seat 8 has reasonable cards, like a Js10s, JQ, JA or JsAs, seat 4 is even money against him BUT if seat 8 (KKxx) has any pair higher than the KK55, then seat 4 becomes a massive 8 to 1 “DOG”, to just seat 8. And in three way action, seat 4’s EV is just 6%, if behind seat 8, but still ahead of HERO. If any reasonable stud player were playing seat 4’s hand of K5, HU against seat 8, it would be a tough call. And if he did, he would be in check/call mode all the way to the river. Now if seat 1 just called on 4th, seat 4 has a very EZ fold. And seat 1, RR, thus making it an automatic fold for Seat 4. Seat 4 has a DEAD HAND. That’s why I asked about the definition of the word “DECENT”. Our DECENT player played this hand like a WHALE; under no circumstances does he have the “best of it” unless, of course, he has the case 5s. I play stud via “handreading skills” and these skills tell me to slow down. I can’t fold because the pot is $90 and I figure for an extra $6, maybe a free card, I get to see my river card. Thus, the CALL. A CALL is a very reasonable action to take in these circumstances, far from a BIG MISTAKE.

What’s truly hilarious about this hand, is that our DECENT player makes, not only a BIG MISTAKE, but a colossal Mistake.

So M to summarize, when the choice of plays is problematic, your best play is the one likely to be correct more than 50 percent of the time. Such as a CR on 6th by seat 1. HOWEVER, when the favored play has very bad consequences when it is wrong (the case 5s), and the less-favored play has only slightly bad consequences when it is wrong (another $6, maybe a free card), it may be correct to choose the less favored play. This is what E did, thus not a BIGGIE in the world of stud mistakes.

If you don't think this is a good reason, then lets debate more or if you have any further questions, please feel free to ask. Good luck at the stud tables.

BTW E, seat 4 has a partner. Be careful and GL.