KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.

[KitCloudkicker]

I'm playing 5/10 full waiting for a seat to open in the 10. table is mostly LP.

unknown limps UTG, I raise black KK UTG+1. 3 callers, and the UTG limper now 3 bets confidently. I'm not sure what this means but AA is likely. Nonetheless, I cap for the following reasons

1) if UTG doesn't have AA, not capping is a huge mistake
2) with all those people in, even if UTG has AA, capping is NOT a huge mistake imo

so here we go, everyone calls. 5 to the flop.

Flop is 973 rainbow. UTG leads quickly.

I dont think raising now is good. Consider:

1) Raising now offers all draws odds to call.
2) I may be behind to AA.

I call. My plan is to raise any turn card and take a free showdown from UTG if offered.

Turn black 8. UTG leads. I raise. An MP cold caller 3 bets. The button calls 3 bets cold. Others, including UTG, fold. I fold, for I cant see MP having anything other than JT, 65, or a set.

Dissect with extreme prejudice. what im curious about is:

1) who raises the flop?
2) who calls down the turn 3?



(note: I actually think now that the flop was rainbow. edited)

[DrVanNostrin]

How likely is it that UTG will bet again on the turn w/o AA after everyone calls on the flop?

[One Outer]

I don't get it. How are you offering odds to those behind you by raising? Is it because you're committing yourself to a showdown?

[Douglas Leslie]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it. How are you offering odds to those behind you by raising? Is it because you're committing yourself to a showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the the point here is that in a big pot, hero should be trying to maximise his chances of winning the hand rather than trying to increase the amount of money in the pot for the sake of it. The theory is that he cannot protect his hand by raising the flop because anyone with a gutshot straight draw will be getting the correct odds to call and will still have the correct odds to call again when the turn comes around. On the other hand, if he waits until the turn to raise, the gutshots will now be making an arithmetical mistake when they call.
This of course assumes that UTG will in fact lead out on the turn. If he doesn't, then hero has not protected his hand by the flop call and has lost the chance to get more money in the pot if he was ahead. Of course, if UTG has AA, hero doesn't really have a hand to protect.

As an aside, do people really cold call two bets to them with hands like 65 or J10 at 5-10? Are these really likely holdings to be up against? Those are the sorts of call I run into in the micros and I always kind of assumed that they would be pretty rare at higher stakes.

[wizard]

I regularly play 8-16 live and the answer to your question is YES! I recently lost w/QQ when I three bet and loosy called w/9-6s, flopped and rivered a 6. He paid 5 more small bets to see the river. This is not unusual.

[Lethe]

[ QUOTE ]

1) Raising now offers all draws odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was capped preflop with 5 people coming along. The pot is now huge. Forgoing a raise here is not going to protect your hand, and there's a pretty good chance that you have the best one. Since you can't protect your hand you might as well just raise it - worst case, they call with their draw that you are probably quite a bit ahead of, and best case they fold incorrectly giving you a better chance of winning.

Yes, AA is in UTG's range, but a lot of the donks I play with frequently pull lrr's with other junk like suited aces, or big suited connectors. I'm betting QQ/AK might also be a possibility. You would obviously have a better idea based on your read of him. I think you still have to raise though as there are other people in the hand... give them a chance to make a mistake.

[Lethe]

2) who calls down the turn 3?

This is tough. The weakest hand I can put villain on is 98, or 87. Far more likely that he has the straight or a set like you said. If we call the turn then I think we have to show down, so we're putting in 2 more bets and probably have like, a 3-4 % chance of winning. This probably makes it a fold but I feel sick doing it in a 25BB pot.

*Edit to say I'm probably wrong about having to show this down UI if we call the turn considering the 3rd player in. If we don't improve on the river and it goes check, bet, call, overcalling would likely be pretty bad. It's probably still a turn fold though, but maybe something to consider.

**Edit2: Just reread my post and realized it contradicts itself in many ways. Since we're always behind we obv. can't show down. We're probably only drawing to our 2 K's which may not even be good. Fold the turn.

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
2) who calls down the turn 3?

This is tough. The weakest hand I can put villain on is 98, or 87. Far more likely that he has the straight or a set like you said. If we call the turn then I think we have to show down, so we're putting in 2 more bets and probably have like, a 3-4 % chance of winning. This probably makes it a fold but I feel sick doing it in a 25BB pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be lost, but I can say I don't call down the turn three.

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

I get these hands all the time playing live 3/6. 90% of the time I'm not even in 2nd place. That 3bet by the MP sniper usually means I'm dead so I tend to run away when this happenes.

[DrVanNostrin]

[ QUOTE ]
I get these hands all the time playing live 3/6. 90% of the time I'm not even in 2nd place. That 3bet by the MP sniper usually means I'm dead so I tend to run away when this happenes.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. I think it's an easy fold to the turn 3-bet. The only questionable play is raising flop vs. waiting for turn, IMO.