Heisman Prop Bet

[MyTurn2Raise]

honestly, I don't like the bet

it would have to be 6 to 5 to be +ev IMO

the field is just too far open with numerous name players from so many different teams that could go a long way

[SunOfBeach]

This has been really helpful. Thankyou to all who helped. Given the responses, I was able to bargain my way to 10 players rather than 8, and only giving him 1.5:1 odds rather than 2:1... though I had to commit to the players today (and give up on the waiting for WVU/USF thing...) So, here's the plan, if anybody is curious:

Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart

Thankyou again to everyone who helped me here.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Good bargaining....I like it now...nice bet

[bugstud]

is the preseason hype on desean jackson gone with his soso performance thus far?

[NajdorfDefense]

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Good bargaining....I like it now...nice bet

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[Rococo]

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Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

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while great players,
no way would I put Painter or Woodson or Brohm on the list

for a QB to win, his team has to be a huge winner. It would be a stretch for either Purdue or Kentucky to last and win their conferences (which is nerely a per-req for a QB).

A RB such as McFadden can win the heisman even with a slumping team. It would be incredibly hard, but not unprecedented.

Ever since Gino Toretta won over Marshall Faulk, the award has become quite the glamour piece for a good player from one of the top 5 teams in the country after the regular season.

Colt Brennan could overcome the top 5 because Hawai'i could go undefeated with him putting up ridic stats.

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This is exactly correct. Heisman voting tends to be regional. I love Woodson as a player, but if an SEC quarterback wins the Heisman this year, it won't be Woodson.

[BennettBrauer]

Nobody knew who Carson Palmer was [nationally] the beginning of that year, either, after 3 inconsistent years. He certainly wasn't getting the Dorsey love and his team wasn't in contention for a title in 2002 like Dorsey either.

[dudeimstoked]

go brennan!

[domer2]

[ QUOTE ]
This has been really helpful. Thankyou to all who helped. Given the responses, I was able to bargain my way to 10 players rather than 8, and only giving him 1.5:1 odds rather than 2:1... though I had to commit to the players today (and give up on the waiting for WVU/USF thing...) So, here's the plan, if anybody is curious:

Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart

Thankyou again to everyone who helped me here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap you took him to the cleaners.

I'd lock in bets right now (while the odds are high) on Patrick White and the sleepers Jamaal Charles/Dennis Dixon. Those are the only three names off your list with a chance of winning; the latter two would require beating Texas and USC, respectively, to have a shot.

[iggymcfly]

If you get 10 at 6:5, it's a pretty good bet no matter what, but I definitely would have put Pat White and Dennis Dixon in there over Bradford or Woodson. Kentucky would have to win the SEC East to give Woodson a shot (very unlikely IMO), and a freshman's not going to win the Heisman no matter what. Meanwhile, Pat White's the best player on a high-profile team that could easily go undefeated and if Oregon beats USC (about 50/50 IMO), Dixon skyrockets to the top of the charts instantly.

I'd say right now, it's something like:
1. Booty
2. White
3. Brennan
4. Tebow
5. Dixon
6. Slaton
7. Rice
8. McFadden
9. Jackson
10. Charles