pair + draw vs spewtard

SlowHabit · #1 11-29-2007, 02:21 AM

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Can you show the math where he has to fold more than 30%?

I got a number much smaller than this.

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Could be wrong and is slight dif w/ blinds but
Pot 12k if both ai * 40% eq = 4.8k
5500 more - 4800 = 700
700 to win 1075+1050

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Hmmm, you might be right but I don't want to confuse myself with more equations. Below is my calculation. Let me know if I miscalculated [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

If we check-shove and Villain folds, we win 2125.

If Villain read Hero's soul, then Hero lose .6 (5500) = -3300 and suck out .4 (6575) = 2630. Total EV for check-shove is -670.

0 = 2125x + (-670)(1-x) ~ x = 24%

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FMP.

poker12 · #2 11-29-2007, 04:14 AM

.

fslexcduck · #3 11-29-2007, 06:17 AM

you guys must suck at math or something... this is such an easy check/shove... you do realize we're not in bad shape against overpairs, right? if we do get all in with 40% equity, so what? we pick up 2125 instead of risking losing that already sizable pot vs what could very very very easily be AK (and if we assume he plays AK this way with the same frequency as pairs, there are 20 combos of AK and 24 of big pairs, so it's really damned close)

syndr0me · #4 11-29-2007, 08:28 AM

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you guys must suck at math or something ... this is such an easy check/shove... you do realize we're not in bad shape against overpairs, right? if we do get all in with 40% equity, so what? we pick up 2125 instead of risking losing that already sizable pot vs what could very very very easily be AK (and if we assume he plays AK this way with the same frequency as pairs, there are 20 combos of AK and 24 of big pairs, so it's really damned close)

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4 x 4 = 20?

TheWorstPlayer · #5 11-29-2007, 09:27 AM

she was including AK suited

syndr0me · #6 11-29-2007, 10:14 AM

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she was including AK suited

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So the one of the same suit counts twice?

HEK · #7 11-29-2007, 10:16 AM

you see i didnt realize the math was so close here. Against a different villian I'd check and get it in. Fsu & gang are right: aiaiaiaiaiaiaiaiai.

nutsflopper · #8 11-29-2007, 10:26 AM

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she was including AK suited

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So the one of the same suit counts twice?

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I think syndrome's right. There's 12 AKo and 4 AKs