Caught between a spew and a scare

TarHeel100 · #1 07-04-2007, 02:35 PM

I was new at this table and had no reads yet. I'd like to see how others play this. I suspect MP1 is going to continue to spew down thru the river w/ probably either AK or KQ. Of course, button capping the flop in the face of this action on a ragged board makes me very afraid. I'm thinking it's going to get very expensive to see the river and I may be looking at a chopped pot in a best case scenario.

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (24.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, Button caps, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (20.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button raises, UTG folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero...........

marchron · #2 07-04-2007, 02:43 PM

You have two outs and the pot's laying you 26-2. Smells like a fold to me.

Bona · #3 07-04-2007, 02:55 PM

Well IMO you forgot to include KK, AA in MP1's range and also I'm not sure everyone caps preflop with AK and KQ. I don't anyway. Button could be problem too, heaven knows what he calls 3 cold with preflop and then caps the flop.

I think we are drawing behind here without proper odds and our implied odds are not helpful either. I can fold it. TPTK does not always win.

TarHeel100 · #4 07-04-2007, 02:57 PM

I was also considering AA and KK in MP1's range, I just didn't think they were as likely simply because people get dealt AK or KQ more often, but I do agree with you that those are also possibilities, although I considered them to be more remote.

RemyXO · #5 07-04-2007, 03:16 PM

AA, KK and QQ are not remote, they are far more likely than AK, AQ because of the preflop cap.
This sucks, but you should fold ... minimize your losses.

aK13 · #6 07-04-2007, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are drawing dead and the pot's laying you 26-2. Smells like a fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

jeanbaptiste36 · #7 07-04-2007, 04:10 PM

grunch
call flop

fold turn

badplayer · #8 07-04-2007, 09:31 PM

Tough one. Very close between seeing the river and just giving up. Pot is big.

Then again, only the two kings seem to be clean outs at this point, if behind. So I'd probably give up at this point.

Aaron W. · #9 07-05-2007, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well IMO you forgot to include KK, AA in MP1's range and also I'm not sure everyone caps preflop with AK and KQ. I don't anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

*Gasp*! I can understand not capping KQ, but AK should be a value cap against a field this large.

NigelSmith · #10 07-05-2007, 04:50 AM

Can we make anything of the button calling 2 cold and then capping the flop? Looks like he was trying to keep people in the hand first time round, then decided to max his value, and I'd expect to see a big hand here -- at least AK, but probably a 6.

Stuck between MP1 and the button on the turn we're probably going to have to pay 3 more to see a river when mostly drawing dead with an outside chance of a split pot or 2 numpties getting out of line, so the turn is a fold for me.