Help with math

[centgas]

OK assume 200nl 6max with $200 effective stacks.

Folded to hero on CO who raises to 7.
Villain is D and 3bets to 24.
Hero shoves.

Now, I predict that 80.2% of the time villain will fold, where we win 24+3(blinds)+7= $34

19.8% of the time villain will call. I would like to know what the breakeven % for villains range will be.

So. X% of the time we will win $200 from villain. (100-X)% of the time we will lose $200 to villain.

So, (80.2)(34) + (200)(X) - (200)(100-X) = 0

This comes out at 48%ish and that has to be wrong. I'm assuming the parts where we have inserted 200 is wrong. Can anyone correct it please?

[centgas]

Would this be right:

$34 x 0.802 + 400(X) - 200

[RedJoker]

80.2% of the time we win $34, 19.8% of the time he calls and we win 210 (200 + 7 + 3) Y% of the time and lose 193 (200 - 7) (1-Y)% of the time.

0.802(34) + 0.198[(210 x Y) - (193 x (1-Y)] = 0

27.268 + 41.58Y - 38.214 + 38.214Y = 0

79.794Y = 10.946

Y = 0.137

So in other words if we have > 13.7% equity against villains calling range it's +EV to shove here.

[runhot]

[ QUOTE ]
So in other words if we have > 13.7% equity against villains calling range it's +EV to shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

im terrible in three bet pots and more or less a donkey in live games.. but this makes sense and is troulbing at the same time..

shove with any PP, when you get three bet?

[RedJoker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So in other words if we have > 13.7% equity against villains calling range it's +EV to shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

im terrible in three bet pots and more or less a donkey in live games.. but this makes sense and is troulbing at the same time..

shove with any PP, when you get three bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if your opponent will fold 80.2% of their 3betting range.....