Rate the chances of an average player winning a WSOP bracelet

[WotaWaster]

This is similar to Sklansky's basketball question.

You take a player who is competent and currently winning enough to support himself through online mid stakes SNG/Cash games.
- He is prepared to make his life goal winning a WSOP bracelet.
- He is perhaps 20 now and expects to live to 70.
- We can assume he will spend the duration of each WSOP in Las Vegas entering as many events as possible

Rate the chance that he will win a bracelet throughout his lifetime and give any assumptions you make which I have left out.

[NickMPK]

This would depend on how well he knows how to play non-holdem games.

If he is a purely NLHE player, 50%.
If he is a good player all-around in other games, 95%.

Also, I think a player who is 20 years old and "currently winning enough to support himself through online mid stakes SNG/Cash games" is much better than the "average player" at the WSOP.

[drunkencowboy]

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Also, I think a player who is 20 years old and "currently winning enough to support himself through online mid stakes SNG/Cash games" is much better than the "average player" at the WSOP.

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I think a player who is 20 years old and currently winning enough to support himself is playing illegally.

[WotaWaster]

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I think a player who is 20 years old and currently winning enough to support himself is playing illegally.

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Not where I come from. Perhaps if I made him aged 21 you could offer your thoughts.

[drunkencowboy]

if the guy was competent why would he make his life goal winning a WSOP bracelet?

[fraac]

Competence in a particular field does not imply sanity.

[nineinchal]

[ QUOTE ]
You take a player who is competent and currently winning enough to support himself through online mid stakes SNG/Cash games.
- He is prepared to make his life goal winning a WSOP bracelet.
- He is perhaps 20 now and expects to live to 70.
- We can assume he will spend the duration of each WSOP in Las Vegas entering as many events as possible

Rate the chance that he will win a bracelet throughout his lifetime and give any assumptions you make which I have left out.

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100% if you get lucky.

[CieloAzor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You take a player who is competent and currently winning enough to support himself through online mid stakes SNG/Cash games.
- He is prepared to make his life goal winning a WSOP bracelet.
- He is perhaps 20 now and expects to live to 70.
- We can assume he will spend the duration of each WSOP in Las Vegas entering as many events as possible

Rate the chance that he will win a bracelet throughout his lifetime and give any assumptions you make which I have left out.

[/ QUOTE ]

100% if you get lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

And 95% if you don't.

[Matt Williams]

Granted, I know it's hard to win a bracelet. But I think 90% of it is having the money to win one. I mean, the law of averages say you have to win a tourniment sooner or later. But if someone has $500,000 to blow every year for 50 years on WSOP Tourniments, odds are he will win one. I suck at poker, but I know if I had Phi Ivey's money, I could win a WSOP Tourniment sooner or later. Yes, it may take 50 years, but it would happen.

[alphatmw]

assume that there are 50 tournaments a year, each with 2000 entrants. he will play 2,500 tournaments in his life.

if he is a perfectly average player, then he has a 1/2000 chance of winning each one, and has a 71% chance of winning a bracelet.

if he is just twice as likely as the field to win, then he has a 92% chance of winning a bracelet.