Bet Sizes?

[calmB4storm]

Let's say there is a hypothetical line of -500, and I wanted to make a one unit bet. Assuming my standard unit is $100, would I risk $100 to win $20, or risk $500 to win $100?

P.S. I think it would be helpful to put this in the FAQ.

[20Five]

when playing the favorite, everyone ive ever encountered always plays TO WIN one unit on the favorite, as opposed to just BETTING one unit on an underdog.

Most money management schemes follow this principle i think. GL

[flight2q]

If your standard bet is S to win S, then when you bet B to win W, set B so that

B*W = S*S

You also need to take your edge into account. If you thought on an even money bet (S:S) that you were 53% to win, then your edge is 3%. On a lopsided game where you are betting the favorite, then it is hard to move the winning likelihood even closer to 100%, so your edge probably goes down. If you think your edge goes down, then you should cut your bet proportionally.

Example. You normally bet $100 to win $100 when thinking you have a 3% edge. You see a line to bet 500 to win 100. You like the favorite and think your edge is 1.5%.

B = 5W is required by the line. W = B/5.

You want B*W = S*S, so B*(B/5) = S*S = 100*100. So B = 100*sqrt(5) = 223.6.

You further adjust your bet by multiplying by your perceived edge here, compared to your normal edge.

edgeadjustedB = Bsofar * 1.5% / 3% = 111.8.

As you can see, when you are betting on a big favorite, you are likely to want to bet a similar amount to your normal wager, and the amount you expect to win on the one bet goes way down.

[rjp]

From a money management standpoint it is correct to wager $100 to win $20. Although you win less money per event, you will win the wager more, creating a proportional growth in your bankroll to when you wager on underdogs against the money line. If you wager $500 to win $100, and then turn around and wager $100 to win $200 on a +200 wager, you're putting more emphasis on your favorite bet, creating a situation where your bet on the favorite "means more" than your bet on the underdog. This makes for a faulty money management plan, as when you wager on the underdogs you're cutting yourself short.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
From a money management standpoint it is correct to wager $100 to win $20. Although you win less money per event, you will win the wager more, creating a proportional growth in your bankroll to when you wager on underdogs against the money line. If you wager $500 to win $100, and then turn around and wager $100 to win $200 on a +200 wager, you're putting more emphasis on your favorite bet, creating a situation where your bet on the favorite "means more" than your bet on the underdog. This makes for a faulty money management plan, as when you wager on the underdogs you're cutting yourself short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Underdogs come in less often also.

[rjp]

.... which is why the odds are adjusted so that you win more if the underdog wins.

[MCS]

From the SSB section on Kelly betting...


$500 to win $100.

You bet to win one unit.