AKs against lag hits TP on monotone flop

jakeduke · #1 07-12-2006, 11:50 PM

Villain is about 50/25/5 over a pretty small sample (50 hands). About 3 hands ago he lost half his stack on a coinflip after raising k7s 7x preflop OTB. Despite his aggression he had only seen 3 showdowns thusfar.

Did I do ok until the river? Do I find a call on the river? I think Adx and a lower two pair are all within his range, as are flushes and QT.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($49.25)
SB ($132.30)
BB ($17.28)
UTG ($50)
MP ($34.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.5, 2 folds, UTG calls $3.50.

Flop: ($11.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8.

Turn: ($27.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($27.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG calls $36.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: $64.25

MrMxyztplk · #2 07-13-2006, 12:25 AM

If you call, you only need to be correct on it 36% of the time.

The question is what hand does he call that flop bet with and then goes AI like that? I think he'd call with a diamond, especially a high one, like the Ad or the Qd. I think there's a chance he hit the A on the river to make two pair and now figures to milk you on an apparent bluff.
You can rationalize his play in any number of ways, but I find the best is to ask yourself this: would he play this way with the flush? Would he just jump out at you when you're showing weakness or would he bet $10-15 after his turn checkraise failed? Given your description, he may well jump out with the nuts.

Personally, I call. I prefer having deep stacks and I don't mind reloading. I also like the image it gives me. If this is a -EV play, I don't think it's by much.

dregal · #3 07-13-2006, 02:49 AM

Yeah I think river is a call. I think this is the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x or a a whiffed draw enought for this to be +EV. I doubt he plays a set this way.

Does anyone bet the turn here? I puke when we get C/R, but I hate to see a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] come on river w/o charging for it. Also, with this villian it seems to open us up to getting bluffed on a scare card.

OXIO · #4 07-13-2006, 03:25 AM

i would sorta play this hand differently. reraise preflop bigger, like to 16xBB, then pot it on the flop, then get the rest of the money in on the turn.

Sometimes, he would have me beat, but i guess this type of player would pay me off enough with second best hands and flush draws here.

Of course if i would feel, that he is not the type of player that likes to pay off in these kind of spots, i would preffer check/behind on the turn and call the river here, to extract some value from bluffs and other worse hands that would like to take advantage of the weakness that we showed on the turn.

west_eh · #5 07-13-2006, 06:37 AM

On the flop, I'd like a bigger bet here (maybe 2/3 is your standard, but on such a draw heavy board I think it's better to juice it up a little). I'd make it atleast $10, pot would be fine too.

That would make the pot $32-$36 on the turn with the effective stacks at $31-$33. It's kind of an awkward stack size amount. Ideally I'd like to bet like 2/3 pot here, but it seems silly to leave the villian with less then $10. At the same time, I think pushing is perhaps too strong and will put you in a situation where only better hands are calling.

The best option looks to be betting half pot and charging the draw but still getting calls from weaker kings. I'd then put the rest in on any non-diamond river.

ReptileHouse · #6 07-13-2006, 10:36 AM

I'd prefer a slightly bigger pre-flop raise, but other than that I think this is fine. I call the river. He has a weaker two pair often enough here, I think.