15/30 Fun Razz Hand

[Sp00n]

I think that's a pretty good analysis Rusty!

[roggles]

The analysis does not at all motivate that we have to fold 6th if we can't raise the river.

As demonstrated by Rusty we need quite a small probability of being good in order to justify calling 6th. However, to raise the river we need a way bigger probability than 0.5 to be good, since we will get one extra bet when we are good but lose two bets when we are bad.

[RustyBrooks]

Do you stipulate that villain MUST have a wheel here based on 7th st action?

Edit: if not, then sometimes when we're ahead we make 3 bets. If so, then we must fold to re-raise.

[roggles]

If he respects Razzy Sp00n he should realize that Hero has at least a 6-5. So reraising anything but a wheel is dumb.

[RustyBrooks]

I love the check on 4th, by the way. I'm curious though, was villain:
1) expecting you to bet, and disguising his hand pretending to have paired?
2) expecting you to bet, so he could check-raise?
3) paired or crap in the hole

If it's 1) well that sucks, otherwise I think you've probably convinced him you have a 3-card hand on 4th. Unless he's relatively savvy, I have no idea who he is or what he thinks.

[jbrennen]

Villain has an automatic bet on 6th street, whether he has a 5 already made, a 6-5, or a 7-5. If he has a 7-5 on 6th street, he'd figure that he's ahead unless we have exactly A-2 in the hole. Also, he has very little to worry about getting raised -- even a 7-perfect is going to have a really tough time raising or betting into a 5-3-2-A board.

So Villain probably has at least one of 4, 6, or 7 in the hole. On 6th street we were behind two of those possibilities and ahead of the other, so easy odds to call. On 7th street we're behind only one of those possibilities, and ahead of the other two -- throw in the chance that he was betting air on 6th street, and then factor in the chance that he caught a 4 on the river, which probably roughly cancel each other out, and we're probably ahead about 2/3 of the time on the end. Normally, I'd say just call, but because our hand is well disguised, I think that he'll 3-bet a 6-5 often enough that raising is possibly the way to go.

[Davdob]

Just looking at the action Street by Street --

Third is standard.

Fourth -- The interesting question here is whether you know your opponent well enough to figure his check for weakness. I very often would check 4 to a wheel there in the hopes that someone would play along for the entire hand. This is pretty read dependent and would affect how I played the rest of the hand. Lets assume for sake of argument, that we are fairly comfortable he is paired here. As the hand plays out, this is mathematically unlikely given that three 3s are out, but its not impossible.

On 5th you have to call if you believe he paired. You probalby have to call in any event because its a mandatory betting position for him.

Not much info to be had on 6th. Because of your showing pair, he again has a mandatory bet. But, that board is looking pretty damn deadly, and the odds that he paired a three earlier are looking pretty bad given that you now have three accounted for.

On Seventh, I dont HATE the raise. His hand demands a bet no matter what. Your raise has some chance of picking off a bluff. On balance, given the cards that are out, with no other read, however, yes I would call.

His reraise means you are almost certainly dead. I would be shocked to see him turn up a hand that couldnt beat a 7-6 at that point. If I had absolutely no read on him, I might call just to know for sure what kind of player I had. Against a solid player that you know however, that reraise probably means a fold.

[RustyBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]

I would be shocked to see him turn up a hand that couldnt beat a 7-6 at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, but hero has the second nuts.

[2461Badugi]

I cap.

[RustyBrooks]

I'd consider it. The best thing is, you can't get re-raised! (If you could, would you make it 4 bets?)