|
|
#1
11-21-2007, 10:42 AM
|
|||
|
|||
calling shortstack pushes with crap
I make this call with no read on villian - new table. The odds are over 2-1 and the amount won't hurt me much if I lose.
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Tournament Blinds: t1200/t2400 (Ante: t300) 9 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: t70068 UTG+1: t51432 MP1: t83200 MP2: t9888 MP3: t43472 CO: t30403 Button: t74335 SB: t99057 Hero: t69798 Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises all-in t9588</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls t7188 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t15888)</font>. MP2 had QTo and won. Next orbit around he pushes again. Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Tournament Blinds: t1500/t3000 (Ante: t400) 8 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: t95330 UTG+1: t42332 MP1: t91900 MP2: t15776 CO: t43972 Button: t54606 SB: t99757 Hero: t55610 Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises all-in t15376</font>, 3 folds, Hero ... it is 12376 for me to call a 23476 pot, nearly 2-1 again, but this time it hurts my stack a bit more. I get fairly lost in these scenarios. 
|
|
#2
11-21-2007, 10:54 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap
I think the first one is a good call simply because of the pot odds, I think you can call with any two cards here.
second one, I think its a fold. Your getting only 1.7:1, so I think you need a hand, 1. You have a slightly worse hand. 2. He has more chips, so wont be shoving as light 3. He knows you are calling super light from BB, so wont be shoving as light. With a tighter range, worse odds and worse cards I think its a fold. Also, how many people left in tourney?
|
|
#4
11-21-2007, 11:08 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap
OK makes the first one ven more of a call I think, but probably doesnt effect the second.
|
|
#5
11-21-2007, 01:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap
[ QUOTE ]
I think the first one is a good call simply because of the pot odds, I think you can call with any two suited cards here, any paint, any pair, 56s and better suited connectors, any ace . second one, I think its a fold. Your getting only 1.7:1, so I think you need a hand, 1. You have a slightly worse hand. 2. He has more chips, so wont be shoving as light 3. He knows you are calling super light from BB, so wont be shoving as light. With a tighter range, worse odds and worse cards I think its a fold. Also, how many people left in tourney? [/ QUOTE ] I agree, a small FYP
|
|
#6
11-21-2007, 02:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap
#1 is an easy call IMO.
#2 is an easy fold. Don't think, "I am getting almost 2:1". You are either getting 2:1 or you aren't. Also, run pokerstove against his range. Do you really think you have 33% equity? I often see people convince themselves that they have 33% equity just b/c a short stack pushes and they are getting 2:1. But a short stack push and you getting 2:1 odds doesn't mean that at all. Some short stacks are super nitty, even when short. 92o isn't a very strong hand. It is 39% against a random hand, that is 39% against ATC. If he is shoving a top 78% hand you have 34.5% equity. If he is only shoving 51% you only have 31% equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 31.319% 30.31% 01.01% 3985349976 133293720.00 { 92o } Hand 1: 68.681% 67.67% 01.01% 8898557304 133293720.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o } So don't just convince yourself that you have to call b/c you are getting 2:1. Think about his range and your equity against it too! Of course, in most cases you will be correct to call getting 2:1 from the BB. But not in all of them. It seems likely to me that this isn't a case where calling is good. As a last point, some villains shove tighter when they are very short than when they are kinda short (and correctly IMO). They know they have "no" FE, so they demand that their hand have more showdown value (i.e. be better). You may want to keep that in mind when assigning ranges to very short stacks of thinking players. Sherman
|
|
#9
11-21-2007, 04:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap
[ QUOTE ]
fold both imo [/ QUOTE ] No offense, but it isn't about opinions. It's about math. You could give an opinion on hand ranges. You could also give on opinion on the difficulty of the decison. But there is no sense in giving an opinion as an answer to a question that can be answered by fact.
|
|
#10
11-21-2007, 05:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: calling shortstack pushes with crap
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] fold both imo [/ QUOTE ] No offense, but it isn't about opinions. It's about math. You could give an opinion on hand ranges. You could also give on opinion on the difficulty of the decison. But there is no sense in giving an opinion as an answer to a question that can be answered by fact. [/ QUOTE ] Well said. How can you fold if it is a +ev play? The whole point is to get the money in when you are +ev...so why would you fold this one?
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
