Predict ARod's season HR & RBI Totals

[Jack of Arcades]

Stat of the day: A-Rod is hitting less than one groundball per game.

[trapsetter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet a buddy of mine $1,000 that A-Rod would hit 53 or fewer when he had 8. I thought I was getting a great deal at the time. This friend of mine is a huge Yankee fan, has deep pockets, and generally is on the losing side of these types of bets (and really doesn't seem to care much).

Now I don't know. If I could cancel the bet I probably would. He looks like a lock for 50 now.

BTW, if he goes on the 15 day DL, the bet is canceled.

Gun to my head I probably say 54 HR and 163 RBI.

[/ QUOTE ]

giving him the DL cancellation clause was a big mistake on your part.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time I made the bet, he had 8 HR's and if you extrapolated his career HR percentage over the remaining games he came in at 48 for the year. 53 seemed like a reasonable level to be short.

Only a complete fool would have made that bet without the DL clause. I didn't "give it to him". He demanded it, and there would have been no bet without it.

I may very well lose this bet, but you have to separate decisions from results sometimes when you're analyzing risk taking. I don't think it was a bad bet at the time, and it's still far from being over.

[trapsetter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet a buddy of mine $1,000 that A-Rod would hit 53 or fewer when he had 8. I thought I was getting a great deal at the time. This friend of mine is a huge Yankee fan, has deep pockets, and generally is on the losing side of these types of bets (and really doesn't seem to care much).

Now I don't know. If I could cancel the bet I probably would. He looks like a lock for 50 now.

BTW, if he goes on the 15 day DL, the bet is canceled.

Gun to my head I probably say 54 HR and 163 RBI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you bet your buddy daryn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, that was nearly two years ago. Get a life.

[DesertCat]

I would take the under on 53. Yankee stadium is tough on the right handed home run hitter. Before A-Rod hit 48, Dimaggio held the right handed mark at 46 IIRC. There have been 10 seasons of 49 HR or more by left handed or switch hitting (Mantle) yankees.

What people forget is not only did Alex give up building a legacy of being the greatest short stop of all time by moving to the yankees, but he also forfeited anywhere from 20-40 home runs (depending upon whether he opts out or not). That might really sting when he's at the end of his career trying to pass Bonds.

[The Curse of ARod]

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
I would take the under on 53. Yankee stadium is tough on the right handed home run hitter. Before A-Rod hit 48, Dimaggio held the right handed mark at 46 IIRC. There have been 10 seasons of 49 HR or more by left handed or switch hitting (Mantle) yankees.

What people forget is not only did Alex give up building a legacy of being the greatest short stop of all time by moving to the yankees, but he also forfeited anywhere from 20-40 home runs (depending upon whether he opts out or not). That might really sting when he's at the end of his career trying to pass Bonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dohh!!! I just realize A-Rod has hit more home runs at home than on the road as a yankee. Guess that NY pressure really doesn't get to him, does it? This comes from making a prediction when he got traded, then not following up on the actual stats.

Of course it could be variance, or mean that A-Rod has faced tougher pitching on the road, tougher parks. He's still have a bunch more homers if he had stayed in TX which is an easy park. I mean it's a commonly held truth that yankee stadium suppresses HR rates by right handers, isn't it? Maybe I should double check that...

Damn.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
People saying he is a lock for 50 please bet me

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[paperjam]

63hr and 175rbis

[LearnedfromTV]

57/155; before the season I would have said high 40's/130ish, which puts him at 43-44/115-120ish for the rest of the season, and I'll give him a little boost for the rest of the season based on how well he's started.

[LearnedfromTV]

It would be awesome to have him chasing Bonds while Bonds chases Aaron. Like if he gets to 30 by mid June and Bonds is on 745.