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#61
11-16-2007, 09:48 PM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
Duke ML +245 @ ND bet 1u to win 2.45u
this is available at bookmaker right now and is a rogue line...it can be arbed, but I left a position on the game after arbing some of it out 
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#62
11-16-2007, 09:48 PM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
iggy, I'm coming at you in 2 threads here (unintentionally). From a purely handicapping perspective, is it really wise to call turnovers 100% luck? Calling fumbles 100% luck seems iffy. Maybe I'm a square, but in the NFL where you see the same guys for many years at a time against pretty even competition it seems clear that certain guys fumble more than others. Still, I would accept those being predominantly luck. Suggesting that going from a very good QB to a very bad QB won't affect your TO margin seems extremely counter-intuitive to me. Finally, I'm curious how you feel about this hypothetical: Team A +2 TO/gm through 10 gms Team B -2 TO/gm through 10 gms Prop Bet: Will Team A or Team B have the better TO margin the rest of the year? They play the same teams going forward. I'm betting on Team A every single time. I'm totally on-board for discounting the TO margin, but something along the lines of 80% of offensive fumbles are "luck", and 50% of offensive INTs would be a more reasonable spot. I haven't addressed defense, but I would expect some small correlation there as well. [/ QUOTE ] football outsider Schatz published a study on the fumble, and indicated that fumbles are NOT random, but WHO COMES UP WITH THEM is. obviously, these are not the same things. -c
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#64
11-16-2007, 10:15 PM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
football outsider Schatz published a study on the fumble, and indicated that fumbles are NOT random, but WHO COMES UP WITH THEM is. obviously, these are not the same things. [/ QUOTE ] In the NFL, when you're dealing with RBs that have been in the league for 5-10 years, you can sometimes reliably say which ones are fumble-prone and which ones aren't. In college football, when most running backs have only been starting for 10-20 games, even if you've got a RB who fumbles 0.5x more per game than his counterpart, the sample size is so small that it's hard to say if it's an actual trend or just variance. There are exceptions (I mentioned Mike Hart on this topic earlier), but most of the time any trend you found would not even be worth a half point.
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#65
11-16-2007, 10:21 PM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Duke ML +245 @ ND bet 1u to win 2.45u this is available at bookmaker right now and is a rogue line...it can be arbed, but I left a position on the game after arbing some of it out [/ QUOTE ] thx for the tip
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#67
11-16-2007, 11:40 PM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
OK, looks like I'm not getting any kind of favorable late bounceback on Hawaii, but this is still better than market value ATM. I'm seeing 5.5 and 5 now.
Hawaii at Nevada +6 (Risk 1.65u to win 1.5u)
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#68
11-16-2007, 11:40 PM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
Brennan is not starting:
http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/ar...317860452.html
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#70
11-17-2007, 01:29 AM
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Re: Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread
well, you probably didn't do much research. Brennan's backup has been there 3 years, and has thrown for 1500 yards at a 70% clip. He'd be a starter in most D1 schools. Also, Hawaii's not a team that needs to brutally outscore their opponents. Their defense is quite impressive too (by WAC standards). Of course, all this comes from playing the weakest schedule in D1. That is the question mark. On the other side, you have an above average WAC team with a sizeable HFA due to the altitude they play at. Their freshman QB is exciting for his ability to scramble, but not so great in the air, or in the pocket. Sagarin predictor has this as Hawaii -12. Adjusting the slight drop-off in QB and perhaps giving a slightly bigger HFA still leaves us as Hawaii favored by more than a TD. Everyone makes a big deal about HI's SOS, but Nevada has gone 5-4 vs a schedule that isn't much better (Sag SOS of 113 vs. 157). Saying these two teams are equal on a neutral field when Brennan doesn't start seems to be ignoring statisical data or perhaps focusing on the wrong things.
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