Buying Half Points + or - EV??

[GTBMuckface]

Ok..
SO my dad used to be a professional handicapper.
He was on the radio in Toronto on the Fan 590AM.
The show was called the Cash Pomer betting Hour, but it was two hours the show from 10-12 on Sundays. MY dad's alias was the Insider, and his identity was never revealed, dun dun dun....

Anyways,
He always advocates buying half points on 2.5 up to 3,3.5 down to 3 or up to 4, 6.5, 7.5, 9.5, 10.5, etc...

I just wanted to know if was in fact correct as he cannot seem to provide me any factual proof other than,
"i hate losing by a half point"

on Pinnacle,
for example,
I just paid -134 for New England -3 tomorrow.
To get the same bet at 3.5 its -106.

I bought the half... and u only pay juice when u lose.

Just curious as to the belief on this topic, and if this has been answered 100 times, I apoligize.

[rjp]

As with anything, the correct answer is "it depends." If you're totally new to this topic then checkout Wong's book, Sharp Sports Betting.

In this case you got ripped. Based on the fair money line for this game (I derive this assuming NE -3.5 -102 is the true odds of the game), your EV for NE -3.5 -106 is -1.86%, where as your EV for NE -3 -134 is -4.74%.

Do you buy Insurance in blackjack???

[Lpmatt]

The spread mattered in only 17% of all the games last season and the underdog under +7.5 only lost but still covered the spread about 10% of the time over the past 3 seasons.

So I say just bet who you think will win and you'll usually be good, of course when you do lose instead of push because of a last second fg that'll stick in your head more than when your 7 pt fav wins by 21 because that's just how the brain works.

[Mojo56]

Article is dated but still a good read:

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/key_numbers.htm

Insurance in BJ? It depends on the count.

[knicknut]

Every book makes you overpay for buying or selling points. Go to Pinnacle and look at selling off a point and buying off a point. You get less cents for selling than you make for buying.

Obviously this is -EV in most scenarios, and doing so because you "hate losing by a half point" is a very square thing to do in most situations.

[dankhank]

ALMOST every book makes you overpay for half points. i can definitely remember finding key half points sold for 10 cents... although it has been awhile and i can't remember where or why.

if it is +EV to buy from 2.5 to 3, then it is obviously going to be +EV to buy a second half point from 3 to 3.5

[knicknut]

I'd be interested to find out if this still exists. But for the OP's purposes, when he just goes to a book or bookie and says "buy a half point", it's almost always -EV.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]

SO my dad used to be a professional handicapper.
He was on the radio in Toronto on the Fan 590AM.
The show was called the Cash Pomer betting Hour, but it was two hours the show from 10-12 on Sundays.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not that I've listened to many of them but my experience is that most of the people who do those Saturday morn or Sunday morn football-handicapping type radio shows are really bad at radio and possibly worse at sports-handicapping.

Did he buy his own 2 hour block from the station?

[PropPlayer]

Bet Jamaica. 1/2 Points not on the 3 are always 10 cents.

I near always buy +6.5 and +7 to +7.5
and -7 and -7.5 to -6.5

BTW Pinnacle is usually one of the worst places to buy points. For example you could of got -125 -3 on New England this Friday or -130 at any other time at Bet Jam.

5 Dimes usually has better pricing on point buying then Pinnacle also.

Pinnacle is good for straight wagering only. If you do anything else, teasers/parlays/buying points etc their pricing sucks.