15/30 3 way turn play

[howzit]

bad player raises UTG, bad player cold calls, i call with Ax3s4s5x on the button. blinds fold.

flop: AQ5, two spades. UTG bets, MP calls, i raise, call, call.

turn: (AQ5) A
checked to me, i bet, UTG c/r, MP calls cold, i 3 bet (?), UTG caps, MP folds.

river: T
UTG bets, i call.


turn play. . .call and get MP to call w/a worse low and reduce variance against these bad players OR ground/pound against v. weak O8 players?

[Buzz]

Howzit - You see A543, AAQ5 after the turn. Villain is acting as though he has a full house.

Villain could have
• aces full of queens
• aces full of fives (the same as you)
• queens full of aces, or
• fives full of aces.

There are 2109+114+3+6+1 = 2233 ways for Villain to have aces full of queens.

There are 1406+38 = 1444 ways for Villain to have aces full of fives.

There are 2109+228+3 = 2340 ways for Villain to have queens full of aces.

There are 703 ways for Villain to have fives full of aces.

Assuming Villain would bet and raise with any full house, there's a better chance you have a higher full house than Villain.

You've not going to do those calculations while playing the hand, but you can make some close approximations.

Only one ace is missing, three queens are missing, and two fives are missing.

• By and large, if Villain has aces full of queens, those come from AQYZ. There is only one way for Villain to have the missing ace and three ways for Villain to have one queen. 1*3 = 3.

• And it's a wash if Villain has the same full house as you.

• By and large, if Villain has queens full of aces, those come from QQYZ. There are three ways for Villain to have two queens. 3*2/2 = 3.

Thus there's approximately an equal chance of Villain having aces full as queens full. (This happens a lot, with one type of full house being just about as likely as another).

• What tips the scales, then, is the possibility Villain has, and is raising with fives full.

Roughly the possible full houses are in a 3:2:3:1 ratio. So roughly you'll have him beaten 4/9, you'll tie 2/9, and you'll lose 3/9.

Is Villain stupid enough to raise with fives full of aces?

If so, you have the odds a bit on your side and you should go ahead and re-raise the turn.

Then when Villain caps, you fear the worst and back off on the river. Fine.

[ QUOTE ]
turn play. . .call and get MP to call w/a worse low and reduce variance against these bad players OR ground/pound against v. weak O8 players?

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know how bad he is. There are degrees of badness.

If Villain thinks one full house is as good as another, go ahead and pound away.

I usually would back off, but more so as not to hurt Villain too much than because of any fear of running into the nut full house (AQXY).

(From the tenor of your post, I assume that is what Villain held).

Buzz

[2handed]

I think three betting after you get checkraised on that board is a giving to much action with a non-nut hand here. Check-raises on a paired board with no low out, even when they come from a bad player indicates a full house, one that more often than not has you beat (AQxy). My thinking here is simply that an opponent who overvalues the second nut full house probably also overvalues QQQ on the flop and will put in a third bet there. HIs checkraising of the turn also does not fit so well with that holding. Just call first raise on the turn; getting 4bet here and forcing MP out are not good things for your hand once UTG has checkraised.

[heresjohnny]

You've just been taken to value town.

[howzit]

these "bad" players are pretty smart off the table and are pretty good in the other games, but they are omaha8 morons. calling two cold with 9986, raising UTG with A97Q. i took that into consideration before 3 betting the turn because i know this guy would raise pre with QQxx, get tricky on the flop by just calling and then c/r'ing me when he filled up.

unfortunately in this hand, i got my ass served. he had AQJT for the winner. a bit boring.

BUT, my question was who calls the c/r to keep another low draw in there? i have two way hand where I'd be ok with raising the river on a non-wheel card.