Running well, and the inevitable reality check

[CalledDownLight]

almost every good high or middle stakes player got there start by running hot

[holdem2000]

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its interesting to think how when i first started playing poker, i ran pretty hot, and this propelled my poker "career". i wonder how many potentially really good or even great players quit in the very beginnings because they ran bad, and how many people like me "got a chance" by running hot early

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If you sample professional poker players you find confirmation for the idea of beginner's luck - not because all beginners are more lucky, but because people who run cold when they're beginners are a lot less likely to continue playing (and potentially become pros) than people who run hot as beginners. (An actual study like this was done for some group of gamblers, I forget the exact details)

[too eazy]

for what it's worth. i'm fairly certain i was one of the people who ran cold when they started (on top of being bad of course). i think it helped me a lot though because i stay at one level for at least two months before moving up to ensure that i'm not running hot and build confidence. a lot of the players who i feel ran hot from the start and shot up to 5/10+ in a matter of say 6 months really don't understand why i grind like i do and i think to some extent it has to do with never having a devastating break even or losing stretch. i think my first 200k hands at 100nl were breakeven and it was obviously sub par play but i think with running good i still could have pulled 3ptbb rather than .5 or whatever.

i dont know, just found this post interesting because i do believe two things: 1) denial runs the industry and 2)how you run when you first "get" poker and play serious has a big impact on what type of gambler you are.

nice post phydaux, it's really great to see you have grasped this and you're going to be a much better player because of it.

[phydaux]

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nice post phydaux, it's really great to see you have grasped this and you're going to be a much better player because of it.

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Thanks.

I read things like WCGRider's post about how he grew his roll from $100.00 to $1500.00 in two months and I get so bummed out.

But then I realize that I've never gone completely broke, because I don't play over my roll, while that $100.00 of WCGRider's was his fifth deposit.

It doesn't make me feel any better, but I'm the kind of weed who will doggedly continue doing what he knows to be right, regardless of results.

But, isn't that the definition of insanity - Doing the same thing and expecting different results?

Christ, this game messes with your head....

[CaptVimes]

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Im sick of people saying i am lucky. I am down more then 1500$
in all in equity. I play a ton of hands, work on my game every day, and get paid for it. Seriously im sick of OMG Rider is lucky.

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Rider,

I don't think anyone is saying that this is all luck. With the amount of hands you put in and the way you've said you've worked on your game, it could hardly be just luck. Part of being a good player is having the right skills and mindset available when the cards start coming your way. You were available with a vengeance.

You know, however, there are those sessions where it feels like people own your soul. All your bluff c-bet/semibluffs get called or raised and when you do manage to hit something they either have you beat, fold, or suck out. Imagine having that for the amount of hands you've had your run. For a primer on this go to the Master sticky and find Cmar's post on his ungodly long breakeven stretch.

People are worried that your gonna flame out as fast as you rose up. You know the whole 'pride goes before the fall' stuff. Pride and poker have killed many a bankroll. I'm not worried about you because you've consistantly stated that if you start running bad you have no qualms about moving down when your bankroll dictates.

Do us a favor though, stick around and help the rest of us, cause I want to have a sick run like that too.

[TheProdigy]

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the long run is so long, I don't think anyone has gotten there, or ever will

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fgators has

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fgators is like -60buyins AI equity after 1.6million hands

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Which isn't much. The actual number of buyins difference will diverge while his winrate will converge upon what it is supposed to be.

I bet(just guessing) that those buyins in all-in equity would make a tiny difference in his actual winrate.

I haven't brushed up on math for like 2 years but this should be correct. If it is not I am just putting my foot in my mouth and plz to be ignoring me

[CalledDownLight]

no, you're right prodigy

[TheProdigy]

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no, you're right prodigy

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Like always bitches.

This pseudo-ego on message boards is going to get me punched in the face in real life.

[WCGRider]

Thanks catainvimes, nice post.

I probably just need to chill out, and I think, if anything i have contributed to view that most people on this board have of me. I have made several posts on these boards of the most extreme stuff thats happened to me, mostly because when big stuff happens i get excited.

While my first few 20/50$ deposits led to me busting, i haven't redeposited since May and i use strict bankroll management. yes over the past 2 weeks i built 1000$ into 6.5k . But it took me a month to get from 300 to 1k.

I feel like several posters really don't think i am a good player at all, and don't value my advice. They think my play is suspect, im on a heater, and I always get lucky. I ran bad for so long in my life many times i debated quitting poker. This game brought me to my knees many times, but persevered and used good bank roll discipline. To be honest there are several people who really think im a fluke, and prob would love to see me bust. I guess it takes time to earn respect.

[too eazy]

wcg, shut up you're horrible.