#11
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
Even bad players get good hands. You probably need to redo the problem with varying percentages of him having a good hand. How to do with is somewhat problematic.
Against maniacs I take the line you did here except I won't raise the river with a hand this weak. And even though they're maniacs I consider folding every time they bet - I just do it less often than with solid players. Honestly on 3rd I think I'd rather just stay out of it. Use 2dimes on T4 vs your starting hand, and see how far ahead you were at the time... |
#12
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
"Even bad players get good hands"... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Definitively more than true! This is the result using 2dimes: 9s 2d Ah 55.47 4s Ac Th 44.44 Thinking about that I remembered the 7CS part in SSI in which it is written to not risk everything against a drunk when one is just a slightly favorite. I just called against him so... Nevertheless, maybe it is interesting to see the percentage on IVSt: 9s 2d Ah 8h 79.48 4s Ac Jd Th 20.49 A brave villain or just a crazy (considering that I had a very tight image)? |
#13
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
This is another possibility (better than my previous simulation for the side pot in which there were some mistakes about the dead cards and I put him on J+):
dead cards: 4T938T3JA Hand Pot equity Wins Ties 2A9883 62.57% 374,879 1,057 (8+8-)AJ53 37.43% 224,064 1,057 |
#14
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
Well, if you knew he had T4, you're a slight favorite on 3rd. If there's like a 10% chance he has a real hand, you're not. If there's a 20% chance he has a real hand, you're a dog.
Also, his hand is "better" than yours because his weakness is hidden and yours is in plain sight. A skilled opponent with the T down will beat you in the long run against your 9 up. Obviously your opponent is not skilled, and this hand worked out OK for you, but you did sort of get involved in a hand where you're in a coinflip or worse. My mantra for LAGs is... they're going to be in nearly every hand. So, they're going to be in nearly every hand that I have good cards, I don't need to exploit them now. Exploitable tight players, on the other hand, you have to get into hands with them on purpose sometimes, because the chances are much smaller that you'll both get playable hands at the same time. Know what I mean? Let loose players come to you. Engage tighter players when you choose to. |
#15
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
My mind understands (and agrees): I hope that also my behaviour will follow your words... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
To be honest there was also another problem related with 7CS8 that I really don't know how to play, so I had not so many time. That's why I anticipated the situation and bet on a hand that usually I would fold. At the end of everything, thank you for all the advice. |
#16
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
I culled "$100 Freeroll" from the first line and that seemed to do the trick.
Tournament - Razz (150/300), Ante 25, Bring-In 50 (converter) Seat 1: 4,890 Seat 2: 6,868 Seat 3: 5,905 Seat 4: 3,725 Seat 5: 620 Hero: 3,573 Seat 7: 655 Seat 8: 4,952 3rd Street - (1.33 SB) Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds 4th Street - (3.67 SB) Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls 5th Street - (2.83 BB) Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls 6th Street - (4.83 BB) Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds Total pot: (4.83 BB - 1,450) |
#17
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
Chip, there are two flaws to your logic on the second hand.
1) He has no bluff potential against an all-in. He must go to showdown to win the pot. To complete with a hand worse than the all-in's ten high would be silly. Granted maniacs, especially in a free-roll, sometimes do silly things. 2) Even a silly maniac can be dealt (9-9-)A. In fact, he will be dealt (9-9-)A only a little bit less often then (T+8-)A. So even if you think he'd play (T+8-)A, you have to average the two simulations. I would fold third. You are a ahead of (T-8+)A but behind (8-8-)A. Let the maniac have this one, take his chips away from him later when you get a 3 card 7. Definitely do not raise 7th. |
#18
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
Sorry, my bad. I gave incorrect advice on how to use the propoker tool. This does not change any recommendations, but for accuracy sake here is the corrected data for my read 9-9- and your read T+8-:
Dead cards: 4T938 Hand Pot equity Wins Ties (8-8-)T3JA 18.46% 88,451 5,012 (9-9-A)J53 63.14% 308,513 5,066 2A9883 18.39% 90,139 914 Hand Pot equity Wins Ties (8-8-)T3JA 27.65% 163,855 4,063 (T+8-A)J53 26.68% 158,560 3,081 2A9883 45.67% 273,112 1,802 To analyze your 3rd street call you are either in this position: dead cards: 4T938 Hand Pot equity Wins Ties (8-8-)T 19.94% 119,330 589 (9-9-A) 47.47% 284,024 1,620 2A9 32.59% 194,824 1,436 or this one: Hand Pot equity Wins Ties (8-8-)T 29.01% 173,817 464 (T+8-A) 24.91% 149,071 810 2A9 46.08% 276,034 882 If your estimate of the maniac's range is correct, averaging the two runs shows you have the proper odds to call. However, it is a high-variance play and you will often be uncertain of how to proceed because you won't know if you are ahead or behind. Personally, I'd pass. |
#19
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
I agree with you.
I continued to make simulation to be use to ProPokerTool: this is an analysis that maybe can be in the middle between your approsimation and mine: dead cards: 4T938T Hand Pot equity Wins Ties 2A9 53.77% 322,108 1,022 (4+8-)A 46.23% 276,870 1,022 dead cards: 4T938 Hand Pot equity Wins Ties 2A9 43.96% 263,221 1,080 (4+8-)A 38.63% 231,244 1,104 (4+8-)T 17.41% 104,276 334 dead cards: 4T938T3JA Hand Pot equity Wins Ties 2A9883 47.33% 283,675 617 (4+8-)AJ53 52.67% 315,708 617 dead cards: 4T938 Hand Pot equity Wins Ties 2A9883 39.39% 235,858 949 (4+8-)AJ53 48.49% 289,660 2,505 (4+8-)T3JA 12.13% 71,495 2,520 I think there are no doubts about the fact that it is worthless to play this hand, even considering my feeling ( [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]) about his hole cards. Nevertheless, what about this kind of approsimation [8- 4+]? Do you think it is a good synthesis to the many point of views or it is too arbitrary? |
#20
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Re: HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]
1st hand, I would call 6th with a 6 draw.
2nd hand, I would fold 3rd. Calling 3rd is a freeroll play. |
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