2 overcards + small draws: Mathematically incorrect to call an all-in?

[AA Suited]

1/2 no limit, 10 players

Relevant stacks:
BB= 50
CO= 100 (Hero = K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

Preflop:
Hero raises to 6, BB calls

Flop (T=$13): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets 10, BB pushes, HERO?

Reads:
BB is a LAG. I read his push as having paired the flop.

I have 2 overs, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush. That's 11 outs. (i count a backdoor as 1 out.)

By rule of 4, i have a 44% to hit by the river, which is 2.27:1.

$73 in the pot, $34 to call.

With the dead $ in the pot, i'm getting 2.14:1.

Yes, im reality it's close enuf that i should call.

But mathematically, it's 2.27:1 to hit and the pot is only giving me 2.14:1, thus by math it's incorrect to call the all-in, right?

Edit:
I'm usually a SnG player. I'm not familiar w/post flop stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

[jay_shark]

Since you're getting 2.27:1 on your call , you have to be successful 1/(1+2.27) = 29.6 % of the time by the river for the call to be worthwhile .

This is obviously the case here .

Also , if you have a 44 % chance of winning by the river , then you need (100-44):44 pot odds which is equivalent to 1.27:1 pot odds .

This should make sense because if you have a 50 % chance of winning , then all you need is (100-50):50 or 1:1 pot odds to break even .

[jay_shark]

One other comment I'd like to make .

You don't really have 11 clean outs because as you know , your opponent may have something like k-10 .

You should win if you hit your jacks so i'd add 4 for sure . For your overcards , i'd add another 5 outs and about 1 for your backdoor . Either way , you have the correct odds so a call is worth it .

[binions]

You have 5 true outs - gutshot + backdoor flush = 20%. Your 6 overcard outs only make you 1 pair, which probably won't make you a winner. Fold.

[AaronBrown]

I know you asked about odds, but also consider the poker.

BB knows he's going heads up against a 6BB raiser. LAG or not, he probably has something. If he things you're stealing he might raise with nothing, but calling should mean he thinks there's a flop he might hit hard. A low pair or suited connectors are the likely hands; or maybe a high/card low card suited hand.

He checks on the flop, then goes all-in when you make a strong bet. That makes sense if he hit a set or two pair. He shouldn't do it on less. Of course, being LAG, he might do it on general principles, or because he thinks you're trying to steal because no high cards came on the flop.

The trouble is he either has you beat, or he's likely to have a hand that cuts into your outs. If he paired the low card of his high card/low card hand, he may have a K or Q. If not, he could have an A. He might have been dealt a pair and missed the flop.

Yes, you could hit your straight or flush, but you can't get any extra money if you do. If you don't hit either of those, you need to hope both that he started with an unlikely hand for this betting even for an LAG, and that you get one of six cards on the turn or river.

If he's bad enough to make this a good call, you can take his money more safely on another hand.

[dfan]

A question for Aaron - what did you mean by high low suited - K4s, Q2s, hands like that? Do these hands have a particular advantage in this situation, like you are unlikely to lose a lot of money with them since they are easy to let go if they only hit a pair?

BTW, here is villains equity if he only does this move with two pair or better:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.9022 % 16.90% 00.00% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 83.0978 % 83.10% 00.00% { TT-99, 22, T9s }

And here is his equity if he throws in a few random TPTK backdoor flush draws, missed pairs, some straight draw semibluffs, etc.:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.1029 % 37.04% 00.07% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 62.8971 % 62.83% 00.07% { JJ-88, 22, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, A9s, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, QJs, QdTd, QhTh, QsTs, T9s, 87s }

So your equity would be somewhere between 17% vs a very solid player to say 38% versus a player who overplays his hand or likes to semibluff. Average equity about 28%, so getting calling with 2.17 to 1 odds is about break even. So under these assumptions it would be EV neutral. Then the question is - do you want to add variance to your game and do you want to be seen as a looser caller?