top two in huge pre-flop capped pot

bellatrix · #1 11-20-2007, 04:10 AM

Reads: MP3 is a tight weak player. 15/3/0.5, but I've only seen him raise really those top 3% hands. He was getting pushed around a bit on this table, so I don't know if he's getting angry.
UTG is an idiot. Sorry, I meant, not a very good player [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. I normally see him donking around the 6-max tables, so I don't know what he's doing here at FR.
No reads on BB.

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP3 raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Sorry, I know I should raise there pre-flop. But boy they sure made up for it, didn't they? MP3 definetly has Aces or Kings. The rest, I don't know yet.

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP3 raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Ok, dump my top pair meh kicker on this giganourmous pot after it gets back raised. Maybe, but i still think I should see the turn. I can safely fold if a brick hits.

Turn: (16.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero ???

Ugh, not exactly a brick. jeez...
Could there be a small possibility they are donking like their A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Ax for the nut flush draw? I'm almost getting the odds on my 4-outer...

knockonwood · #2 11-20-2007, 04:17 AM

Your relative position in this hand sux. Call down, its likely one of them is overplaying their hand and your getting just about the right odds (expecting to collect bets on the river) to fill up.

Douglas Leslie · #3 11-20-2007, 04:33 AM

Pre-flop is OK. QJs plays well multi-way, so I would be happy to limp along in middle position.
On the flop you know that you are behind to MP3 for sure and probably BB as well. He led out into a capped pot, so I think it is fair to assume that he can handle QJ. It is quite conceivable that none of your outs are good here. I think you can fold when it comes back to you after BB's three bet, even getting fifteen to one particularly since there is every chance that it is going to be capped behind you. It is close though, and calling is not unreasonable. On the turn you are getting at least ten to one and possibly more if MP3 just calls behind you. With the implied odds when you hit your full house I think you have to close your eyes and call.

Mitke · #4 11-20-2007, 08:41 AM

Preflop is ok IMO. Is UTG+1 an idiot too? If not, you might not have much equity vs him. Raising could help to isolate the idiot UTG on later streets if others don't join the fun. If the players acting after you are loose enough to cold-call then raising becomes better.

What would be your motives for raising preflop here?

Flop... if you think there's a good chance BB or MP3 holds AK your Q outs are all dead and J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] need to be discounted anyhow.

Turn.. so you've got two players left to act behind you, both have shown strength on previous streets, the flush and straight just completed -> in all likelihood you aren't seeing the river for 2BB. Implied odds are very good though so...

I did consider a 3-bet (for a second) to:

a) maybe lose the tight weak MP3 with an overpair and 12 outs vs. us (GS+trips+better twopair), or even a straight as our 3-bet would look very strong here, like a flush here. This could lose BB as well if he's pumping AA or KK.

b) to isolate us vs. the idiot UTG

c) maybe get a free showdown

This is all probably wishful thinking in a pot this big so calling the turn hoping it doesn't get capped and J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falling on the river for implied odds is ok IMO.

Niediam · #5 11-20-2007, 09:43 AM

Preflop: Limping was fine. Fold when it's two back to you.

Flop: I hope I'm not being biased because I can see the action but if you really are sure that MP3 has AA/KK then I'd just fold because it looks like BB also has a big hand and you are going to have to pay a lot of bets to see the turn and you might not even be good if you catch.

Turn: I don't think I can fold with your redraw and the size of the pot. Hopefully BB/MP3 will be able to figure out that UTG probably has a set or straight here and won't jam. They might do it anyhow though if one of them has a set.

Bona · #6 11-20-2007, 09:48 AM

We are peeling just a little to call 2 here. But are ahead often enough to justify it. The hard decision is knowing we may have to decide whether to call 2 more since we are not closing the action. It will feel fishy to call 2 more. Probably the the right thing to do is call these two and fold to 2 more.

But I'm not going to do it. I am going to see the river no matter what and then decide. If it's a brick river and it's 2 to us on the river I probably fold then. If it is a brick river and only 1 to call I'm calling it.

WARNING: I think making fishy calls with 2 pair is a leak in my game. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

KitCloudkicker · #7 11-20-2007, 10:23 AM

fold pf after the reraise, and fold flop after its 2 back

britspin · #8 11-20-2007, 10:24 AM

Grunch.

PF: If MP3 is as tight as you say, I'm out of here on the re-raise. This might be weak tight, but when a 3% player is reraised there's a good chance it's coming back capped. I fold after the raises.

Flop: If I'm 90% certain MP3 has AA or KK I think I can fold top pair. Should I be looking at pot size? I'm getting 20-1 to call first time round, but I'm certain there'll be a raise behind me, so its more like 11-1. With only 3 clean outs, I think that equals a fold.

Turn. You're getting what, 9-1 for your redraw? 4 outs (assuming BB isn't playing JJ, which is quite a big likelihood, but nevermind). Since it looks like you'd get paid off if you hit, It's callable, though personally I might let MUTB scare me off this one. I strongly suspect JJ for BB and flush/straight for UTG. It's marginal.

LukeSLTS · #9 11-20-2007, 11:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold pf after the reraise, and fold flop after its 2 back

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen!

Preflop is not as bad as flop. Preflop you call to flop a strong draw but that flop was not what you were looking for. People lose so much money with QJ when they hit one pair it is ridiculous. After all the strength shown preflop you have to fold when it gets three bet behind you. You are almost guaranteed to have it capped and you may hit an awkward turn card (ala Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) that makes you want to continue on in another marginal situation.

Dankenstein · #10 11-20-2007, 01:51 PM

:G:
I would have raised preflop like you said. From mp3's pfr stats and the fact that he capped preflop I think it's safe to say he has Aces or kings here...maybe queens. Seeing how tight he is I doubt he would 3-bet with AK let alone cap. BB's range is maybe a little more liberal without reads it's difficult to say.

Flop: Wow this is tough you have TP with an Ok kicker in the middle of a raising war. Normally I would dump here but the pot is soooo big I think you have to call and dump on a bad turn as you said.

Turn: This is really tricky.. suddenly UTG wakes up after just calling all the way through. I feel like he has a flush here but maybe he hit a worse 2 pair ? The pot is big here but I fold. The BB really scares me The only thing you beat here is an overplayed AA or KK from the BB. But I put the rest of his range on TT,JJ,QQ,AKs,or AK which all put you in really bad shape. Yes, you're getting close to 10:1, but if you apply this range to your opponent your outs may need to be discounted. Also if this range is correct how often is BB 3-betting here ?

This hand is tough and I'm not sure how good my analysis is but that's my take on the situation. In all honesty if I was playing this in the heat of the moment and wasn't analyzing the hand I probabaly would call down especially since I would be really pissed if I folded this big of a pot with 2 pair and BB didn't 3-bet, a Q or J came on the river, or everyone was overplaying their hand. With that in mind calling my be good if you tilt bad..