BFI August [censored] Thread - Page 3

cbloom · #21 08-10-2007, 03:51 PM

I'm incompetent so this is seriously LC but it seems to me that there's some serious value in the market right now. Everybody is selling out of the big S&P 500 funds so all those stocks are diving when only a few of them really should be; all the non-financial solid income companies look like really good values to me, I'm going to try to pick a few and get my free cash into them.

(though, LOL I saw some finance guy on The Newshour the other day using GE as an example of a solid company that was falling irrationally and I was like WTF I don't know the details on GE but they are one of the largest credit/capital companies in the world, if you think GE is a manufacturing company you are living in 1950)

ahnuld · #22 08-10-2007, 03:57 PM

meh, they are dropping but maybe for good reason. Consumer spending was weak for the past two months, and as barron explained in his mammoth ask barron thread, credit problems can affect all areas of the economy. Im not sure where I want to put my money, im already at 90% stock, but I might go into margin if I see some deals next week.

Kirkrrr · #23 08-10-2007, 06:10 PM

Went short a bunch of homebuilders across the board beginning of the week, almost got stopped out of all of them courtesy of the mid-week rally but now that the market regained its senses and is starting to go back down I'm back in black, baby!

This could be just a pullback before we proceed to set new record highs but I can't for the life of me see that happening and wouldn't advise anyone I like personally to go long stocks right now.

Kirk

spino1i · #24 08-10-2007, 08:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Went short a bunch of homebuilders across the board beginning of the week, almost got stopped out of all of them courtesy of the mid-week rally but now that the market regained its senses and is starting to go back down I'm back in black, baby!

This could be just a pullback before we proceed to set new record highs but I can't for the life of me see that happening and wouldn't advise anyone I like personally to go long stocks right now.

Kirk

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think its so clear right now where the market is going in the short-term. It really depends on how people react to more subprime bad news.

Kirkrrr · #25 08-10-2007, 09:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think its so clear right now where the market is going in the short-term. It really depends on how people react to more subprime bad news.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a given, however the fact that we're right off the all-time high combined with the fact that a lot of bad news are coming out and, like you hinted yourself, more bad news is probably on the way, makes it a lot more likely that we're going down rather than up, imo, therefore a bet on the downside has a higher likelyhood of being right. Also, all the prevalent negative sentiment should discourage retail investors from buying heavy into the stock market, so there goes support. This is all obviously speculation on my part based on simple common sense.

Kirk

SlowHabit · #26 08-11-2007, 04:36 PM

If I want to learn more about sectors such as financial and insurance companies [how they make moneys, the average margins, P/E], what books should I read?

hlacheen · #27 08-11-2007, 05:14 PM

I think the reason a lot of the big names unrelated to the credit crunch are dropping is because hedgies are selling the big liquid names to raise money for redemptions.

john kane · #28 08-11-2007, 05:27 PM

how do you guys deal with the variance of making and losing money?

right now i've got a sports betting system which i thought about for a while and then paid $2K for the season. They've been going 3 years and returning a decent %. Only after I bought then i looked into the figures and saw for the last 2.5 years they've returned about 7% (although if you used growth account in 3 years from £5K to £115K or so...not bad...last 2.5 years about £40K to £115K).

then ive got poker, which always used to give me $250/hr or so till ive hit a 60K hand breakeven spell. my worst ever.

then ive got financial spreadbetting which i havent started but am tempted

then a project im spending so many hours on recently but will probabably make at best $2k a month for a lot of work (something id get satisfaction from though if it comes off).

so all in all my day is spent on the project, thinking about spreadbetting, playing poker, and now on saturdays sports betting.

i can easily have a swing of a 2K in an hour at poker, im betting $1K per game on the sports (was going to do $8K per game but figured that would be too much), and then a lot of time spent on a project which won't make much.

im breakeven in the last 6 weeks. part of me thinks im mad for putting myself through all this thought and instead pack up and go on an incredible 6 week round the world holiday which would cost a huge amount. but part of me really would love to do it. but then i can do that when i retire at 35 with loads cash and a fit wife [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

cbloom · #29 08-11-2007, 08:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the reason a lot of the big names unrelated to the credit crunch are dropping is because hedgies are selling the big liquid names to raise money for redemptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is my feeling; the big consumer goods companies and such shouldn't really be hurt by tight credit too much, most of them have tons of cash on hand, they're just falling because the hedges and the panicked market timers are selling out of everything. Of course if there actually is a recession it's bad for any kind of optional/luxury companies, but companies that continue to do well in recessions like necessary staples would be my bets. I guess I'm gonna move some money next week.

pig4bill · #30 08-11-2007, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the reason a lot of the big names unrelated to the credit crunch are dropping is because hedgies are selling the big liquid names to raise money for redemptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is my feeling; the big consumer goods companies and such shouldn't really be hurt by tight credit too much, most of them have tons of cash on hand, they're just falling because the hedges and the panicked market timers are selling out of everything. Of course if there actually is a recession it's bad for any kind of optional/luxury companies, but companies that continue to do well in recessions like necessary staples would be my bets. I guess I'm gonna move some money next week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, except that a lot of consumers buying those goods were doing so with home equity loans and stock market gains. They don't feel quite so flush right now and may turn off the money faucet.